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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Watch out, Skype. Tencent steps out from China.

Tencent IM QQ - Global web siteTencent's QQ all-time peak concurrent users is 75 million; four times Skype's. Live stats. By contrast, Skype dialtone reached 18 million concurrent users earlier this month.

Tencent IM QQ - Global web siteQQIM is expanding from its Chinese base with its 990 million user accounts and 448 million monthly active IM users. IMQQ.com is QQ's new "global" portal for English speakers. At last report, China remains Skype's largest market.

Tencent IM QQ - Global web siteTencent just recruited Fons Tuinstra to moderate IMQQ's business section. He is one of the foremost Western journalists and social media experts living in China (blog, friendfeed, twitter, LinkedIn). Tuinstra operates the China Speakers Bureau, a thought leadership center for doing business in China.

Meanwhile, Tencent Holdings continues growth and profitability and a US$30.2 billion market capitalization (SEHK 700).

CORRECTION: Fons Tuinstra is not a Tencent employee.

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Thursday, August 13, 2009

Tencent QQ continues growth, profitability

Skype is huge. But it's not the biggest IM or social network. That honor goes to Tencent and its QQ family of instant messaging and online services. They've had a great second quarter. They are on track to cross the one billion user account mark in Q3. The number of recently active users and peak active users is astonishing. And it's all within the Chinese language markets.

(millions)

For the 15-day period ended 30 June 2009

For the 16-day period ended 31 March 2009

Percentage change

Registered IM user accounts (at end of period)

990.0

934.9

5.9%

Active user accounts (at end of period)

448.0

410.8

9.1%

Peak simultaneous online user accounts

61.3

57.5

6.6%

Average daily user hours

996.8

847.3

17.6%

Average daily messages(1)

6,147.6

4,991.0

23.2%

Fee-based Internet value-added services registered subscriptions (at end of period)

40.0

36.9

8.4%

Fee-based mobile and telecommunications value-added services registered subscriptions (at end of period)(2)

17.2 16.8 2.4%

(1) Average daily messages include messages exchanged between IM client software installed on PCs or mobile devices only and exclude messages exchanged with PCs or mobile devices through channels other than IM client software.

(2) Includes registered subscriptions for services provided directly by us or through mobile operators.

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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Tencent's QQ IM triples Skype's dialtone

Tencent Holdings (SEHK 700) published their 2008 financials last week. Among the highlights: stats we can compare with Skype. QQ has more than twice as many registered accounts and more than three times Skype's simultaneous online users. While QQ has many rich instant messaging features, it's not a voice platform. QQ has grown about ten percent quarter over quarter in peak activity since the end of 2008-Q3 when we reported they had 45 million simultaneous online.

For the 16-day period ended 31 December 2008 (in millions), Tencent reported:

  Tencent QQ logo  Skype Logo (hi-res)
Registered IM user accounts
(at end of period)
891.9 403
Active user accounts
(at end of period)
376.6 NA
Peak simultaneous online user accounts (for the quarter) 49.7 15
Average daily user hours 710.9 NA
Average daily messages(1) 4,282.6 NA

(1) Average daily messages include messages exchanged between PCs only and exclude messages exchanged with mobile handsets.

Nearly all of QQ's users are Chinese readers and speakers. China has an Internet population of 298 million people, Taiwan adds another 15 million.

How can QQ have more registered and active accounts than people who have Internet? China's enormous cybersalon culture. Some estimates say China has as many as 300 thousand Internet cafés of 100 seats or more, about half unlicensed. So for each person with home or work Internet connection, another person drops by a local Internet café.

QQ is bigger and different than Skype and remains one of Skype's biggest rivals in Skype's biggest market.

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Monday, November 17, 2008

Tencent's QQ: 45 Million Simultaneous Online

QQ v. Skype: Bigger, Different, Chinese

Tencent Holdings (SEHK 700), one of Skype's biggest competitors, had a great quarter. From their 2008Q3 financial release (pdf):

  • 856.2 million: Total registered Instant Messaging (“IM”) user accounts, 4.1% growth QoQ [quarter over quarter]
  • 355.1 million: Active IM user accounts, +3.9% QoQ
  • 45.3 million: Peak simultaneous online user accounts for IM services recorded, +7.9% QoQ
  • 4.4 million: Peak simultaneous online user accounts of QQ Game portal (for mini casual games only), +11.2% QoQ
  • 30.3 million: Internet paying subscriptions, +16.1% QoQ
  • 14.8 million: Mobile paying subscriptions, +10.4% QoQ

More people actively use QQ instant messaging than live in the United States and Canada [Tencent defines "active" as logging in to an account in the last 30 days of the quarter].

QQ IM has 3 simultaneous users online for every Skype user online.

Skype has 370 million user accounts, does not report active users but estimates vary from 36 to 85 million people, and peak simultaneous is around 14.5 million.

Skype report minutes, when Tencent does not. Live voice and video calls. Ten billion minutes served in June 2005 (before eBay bought them). 100 billion minutes served as of February 2008. 18 billion minutes a quarter as of 2008-Q3.

Mini-SWOT

QQ has a few strengths.

  • No QQ-In or QQ-Out. Regulations forbid connecting to the public telephone network. So Tencent focused their resources to create online communities, content, and games that both trigger talk and make money. QQ commerce is so hot QQ has one of the world's largest virtual currencies.
  • Multiple OS clients. Windows. Windows Mobile. Mac beta. Browser. Linux. 
  • Age and Incumbency. QQ celebrates their 10th year of service. Skype is only five years' old. Brand awareness and loyalty build with time and experience. QQ has effectively built IM dial-tone (confidence that people will be available through the network) and network lock-in for its customers.
  • Monolingual, Monolithic. QQ only needs to support Chinese. So it's easier for people to find other people with similar interests. Spoken Chinese languages pose a linguistic barrier, but not too much since Mandarin is a common second language. 

Weaknesses.

  • Sub-Global reach. Skype has to build markets in each country, in every language community. This makes it harder to localize software and web sites, provide customer service and tech support, and talk with a community; the time and costs pose a barrier to entry. Once localized, Skype has an advantage over entrants. QQ isn't even trying to serve non-Chinese cultures.
  • No PSTN or mobile voice integration. No income. No new points for the company to learn.
  • Platform 1.0. Like most IM providers, QQ offers a simple messaging API. A handful of third-party clients offer alternatives to QQ's own clients. However Tencent lacks a platform strategy, building foundations for third-party partnerships beyond IM clients.

Opportunities.

  • Markets: India. Chinese Diaspora.
  • Features: Voice/Video/Conferencing.
  • Business: Alliances with Indian and western portal/IM companies

Threats.

  • TOM-Skype joint venture. Working inside China to spread Skype's brand.
  • Premium quality audio and video, a qualitatively different experience.
  • The four national Chinese telcos who may enter the market and who restrict PSTN access.

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