Wow, It’s been eight years since Skype launched. 2003 to 2011. I’ve been writing about Skype on my own blogs or on Skype Journal from the start. SJ alum Jim Courtney salutes Skype today and Skype pats itself on the back.
Looking back…
The company has been bought and sold, and sold, and sold. And soon to be sold again.
The founders were in, kicked out, then held key technology for ransom to get back on the board for their big payout from Microsoft.
Skype averaged a new leader a year.
Skype disrupted international telephone companies, displacing billions of dollars of hard currency with free or very cheap services. Their success has them banned in some countries and declared “an enemy of the state” in others. Didn’t stop them from partnerships with mobile operators from Hong Kong to Italy.
Roughly half the Internet has tried Skype on a personal computer, a mobile phone, or in a device. Skype isn’t ubiquitous but its brand is. And Skype continues to grow.
Why? What does the future hold?
As for why Skype’s been successful…
Skype’s timing was great, several times. Just in time for broadband to make consumer VoIP practical for millions. A few years’ later, just in time for a lift by eBay’s brand (did you know Skype was an eBay company for half its life?), Skype was able to hire GIPS expats and ready itself for the webcam explosion. And when the world economy imploded in 2008, Skype was a large enough network that people turned to video calling as an alternative to travel (airlines hate Skype).
Skype partnered intensely. If you could bring a million new users to Skype, Skype cut a deal. Large national web portals have Skype sub-sites, laptop manufacturers preinstall Skype on Windows, mobile operators install Skype on Android phones, and you can find Skype on TVs and soon on game stations.
Skype focused on customer acquisition. During its eBay years, Skype pursued new users at the expense of product innovation.
Skype gets the viral business. It takes two to talk and Skype made sure you had every reason to drag your friends and family into the network. Skype keeps removing roadblocks to onramping and adding reasons to subscribe. This could be Skype’s first billion dollar year.
Skype delivered real value, consistently, affordably, to millions of people.
So, a few longer-term Skype predictions:
In 2011:
Microsoft will close the deal.
Skype will have more than 1000 employees.
Luxembourg will become Skype’s HQ in name only. Palo Alto is the new Luxembourg.
Microsoft Watch starts covering Skype closely.
In 2012:
Microsoft’s Skype division will absorb the Lync business unit.
Lync will be rebranded Skype.
Skype will launch its cloud products.
Skype will hit its Q1 peak of 35 million concurrent users, 220 million active users.
Victims sue Skype for not offering emergency dialing after a family dies.
Skype’s new cloud loses the US Presidential campaigns to Twilio, powering team and phonebanking apps.
A Skype toolbar and skinny-client comes with a new release of Internet Explorer.
Skype fuels LinkedIn chat.
Hackers reverse engineer Skype’s p2p network, make it public. Vulnerabilities and prior hacks exposed.
In 2013:
Skype for Mac catches up with Skype for Windows.
Skype for Windows Phone has cooler features than Skype for Mac.
Skype ships on the next Windows, in the next Office.
Skype becomes just one of thousands of products using in-browser WebRTC for calls, presence and IM.
SkypeKit becomes a standard component of Windows.
Skype kills the former Lync product family as PSTN hardware sales drop sharply. Lync becomes a Sharepoint feature, phone stations are all mobile, tablet or PCs.
Skype works with with Windows Live Messenger IM and voice.
In 2014:
Skype will generate one quarter of its revenue through Microsoft internal customers. Bing ads, Xbox subscriptions, Office, Windows.
Leaks reveal Skype cooperated with law enforcement in a totalitarian regime to shut down resistance. Leaks prove false.
Facebook drops Skype as a partner, as their internal pendulum swings to owning.
The Vatican IT department picks Skype as its telecom standard.
Skype for Layar brings talk to augmented reality RayBans.
In 2015:
Skype will deliver one billion minutes of live talk through developers using its cloud platform services.
Skype will generate one quarter of its revenue from platform services.
Skype and Bing launch YouTube competitor.
Skype is banned on student tablets in 903 school districts as a distraction.
Half of all televisions come with Skype inside or in an attached box.
Mass exodus as pre-Microsoft Skype employees fully vest and leave.
In 2016:
Phone banks using Skype for Web prove decisive in Get Out The Vote campaigns.
Facial recognition plug-ins reveal micro expressions and give live commentary.
Stallone Skype’s fighting instructions to his son in Rocky Junior.
In 2017
Platform products deliver half of Skype’s revenue.
Tony Bates named as Ballmer’s successor.
Photo credit: 8th Birthday Cake by Jim Capaldi for Emily’s 8th Birthday Party.
Thanks for all the Skype.