Coobol, the new p2p R&D firm, mapped Skype supernodes earlier this week. (Full size image, 1.1MB) A Coobol spokesman explained it like this:

A Skype supernode is a dynamic peer-to-peer server in SkypeNet. A supernode is one of Skype’s users. Powered by these unknown supernodes or users across the world, Skype is able to provide the super world telephony communication system for free. However, this is not something new. As we all know, this is just the basic theory of peer-to-peer technology. Inspired by p2p mechanism, Coobol will provide our partners with software, solutions and Internet platforms for them to build a variety of applications, such as P2P network security, content publication, streaming media, global VOIP network, virtual office, SNS (Social Network Service) etc. We are determined to be a world-class peer-to-peer research and development company.

Coobol is a peer-to-peer technology specialist. They focus on the research and development of software, network communication platforms and tools based on peer-to-peer technology. They "bring ordinary people together to create miracles." The name Coobol was created initially by team members during a tea party. Their office is in Hong Kong.

There are many things we don't know about Skypenet, that I would hope technical R&D firms like Coobol might be paid to investigate. For instance,

• What is the frequency distribution of Skype supernode lifespans?
• Why are Chinese Skype supernodes not shown on the map? Where else are these factors at play?
• How does the number of supernodes vary by time, for example by time of day and day of week?
• How many supernodes are being operated by Skype itself instead of its users?
• How many supernodes would an attacker have to disable to cause the remaining supernodes to overload?
• What is the range of Skype users supported by supernodes? Does this vary a great deal?
• Any way to tell how many supernodes are being run over dial-up connections?
• Do all the regions have similar ratios of nodes to supernodes? Or do they vary?
• Are the number of supernodes keeping up with the number of active Skype users? With the the number of minutes served?
• If you can identify Skype supernode IP addresses, can you measure the amount of cloud traffic a supernode passes along? The amount of chat/voice/video/data relay bandwidth?

Deal done. Retail VOIP in the offing? Views later.

eBay has agreed to acquire Luxembourg-based Skype Technologies SA, the global Internet communications company, for approximately $2.6 billion in up-front cash and eBay stock, plus potential performance-based consideration.

Skype generated approximately $7 million in revenues in 2004, and the company anticipates that it will generate an estimated $60 million in revenues in 2005 and more than $200 million in 2006. For Q4-05, eBay expects the acquisition to be dilutive to pro forma and GAAP earnings per share by $0.01 and $0.04 respectively. For the full year 2006, eBay expects the transaction to be dilutive to pro forma and GAAP earnings per share by $0.04 and $0.12 respectively, with breakeven on a pro forma basis expected in the fourth quarter of 2006. On a long-term basis, eBay expects Skype operating margins could be in the range of 20% to 25%.

The acquisition is subject to various closing conditions and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Full text of news release...

On Skype.com:

eBay to Acquire Skype

London, September 12, 2005 – eBay Inc. (Nasdaq: EBAY; www.eBay.com) has agreed to acquire Luxembourg-based Skype Technologies SA, the global Internet communications company, for approximately $2.6 billion in up-front cash and eBay stock, plus potential performance-based consideration. The acquisition will strengthen eBay’s global marketplace and payments platform, while opening several new lines of business and creating significant new monetization opportunities for the company. The deal also represents a major opportunity for Skype to advance its leadership in Internet voice communications and offer people worldwide new ways to communicate in a global online era. Skype, eBay and PayPal will create an unparalleled ecommerce and communications engine for buyers and sellers around the world.

“Communications is at the heart of ecommerce and community,” said Meg Whitman, President and Chief Executive Officer of eBay. “By combining the two leading ecommerce franchises, eBay and PayPal, with the leader in Internet voice communications, we will create an extraordinarily powerful environment for business on the Net.”

Founded in 2002 by Niklas Zennström and Janus Friis, Skype offers high-quality voice communications to anyone with an Internet connection anywhere in the world. The Skype software is easy to download and install, and enables free calls between Skype users online. Skype’s premium services provide low-cost connectivity to traditional fixed and mobile telephones. Skype’s software also offers a robust set of features, including voicemail, instant messaging, call forwarding and conference calling. Upcoming product innovations include Skype video, expressive content such as avatars, and customized toolbars for Outlook and Internet Explorer.

One of the fastest growing companies on the Internet, Skype already has 54 million members in 225 countries and territories. Skype is currently adding approximately 150,000 users a day and has created a thriving ecosystem of products, services, developers, and affiliates. Skype is considered the market leader in virtually all countries in which it does business. In North America alone, Skype has more users and serves more voice minutes than any other Internet voice communications provider.

“Our vision for Skype has always been to build the world’s largest communications business and revolutionize the ease with which people can communicate through the Internet,” said Niklas Zennström, Skype CEO and co-founder. “We can’t think of any better platform to fulfill this vision to become the voice of the Internet than with eBay and PayPal.”

“We’re great admirers of how eBay and PayPal have simplified global ecommerce and payments,” said Janus Friis, Skype co-founder and senior vice president, strategy. “Together we feel we can really change the way that people communicate, shop and do business online.”

Zennström and Friis will remain in their current positions. Zennström will report to eBay CEO Whitman and join eBay’s senior executive team.

A Powerful Ecommerce and Communications Engine

Online shopping depends on a number of factors to function well. Communications, like payments and shipping, is a critical part of this process. Skype will streamline and improve communications between buyers and sellers as it is integrated into the eBay marketplace. Buyers will gain an easy way to talk to sellers quickly and get the information they need to buy, and sellers can more easily build relationships with customers and close sales. As a result, Skype can increase the velocity of trade on eBay, especially in categories that require more involved communications such as used cars, business and industrial equipment, and high-end collectibles.

The acquisition also enables eBay and Skype to pursue entirely new lines of business. For example, in addition to eBay’s current transaction-based fees, ecommerce communications could be monetized on a pay-per-call basis through Skype. Pay-per-call communications opens up new categories of ecommerce, especially for those sectors that depend on a lead-generation model such as personal and business services, travel, new cars, and real estate. eBay’s other shopping websites — Shopping.com, Rent.com, Marktplaats.nl and Kijiji – can also benefit from the integration of Skype.

PayPal and Skype also make a powerful combination. For example, a PayPal wallet associated with each Skype account could make it much easier for users to pay for Skype fee-based services, adding to the number of PayPal accounts and increasing payment volume.

In addition, Skype can help expand the eBay and PayPal global footprint by providing buyers and sellers in emerging ecommerce markets, such as China, India, and Russia, with a more personal way to communicate online. And consumers in markets where eBay currently has a limited presence, such as Japan and Scandinavia, can learn about eBay and PayPal through Skype. Skype can also help streamline cross-border trading and communications.

With its rapidly expanding network of users, the Skype business complements the eBay and PayPal platforms. Each business is self-reinforcing, organically bringing greater returns with each new user or transaction. The three services can also reinforce and accelerate the growth of one another, thereby increasing the value of the combined businesses. Working together, they can create an unparalleled engine for ecommerce and communications around the world.

Transaction and Financial Information

eBay will acquire all of the outstanding shares of privately-held Skype for a total up-front consideration of approximately €2.1 billion, or approximately $2.6 billion, which is comprised of $1.3 billion in cash and the value of 32.4 million shares of eBay stock, which are subject to certain restrictions on resale.

The maximum amount potentially payable under the performance-based earn-out is approximately €1.2 billion, or approximately $1.5 billion, and would be payable in cash or eBay stock, at eBay’s discretion, with an expected payment date in 2008 or 2009. Skype shareholders were offered the choice between several consideration options for their shares. Shareholders representing approximately 40% of the Skype shares chose to receive a single payment in cash and eBay stock at the close of the transaction. Shareholders representing the remaining 60% of the Skype shares chose to receive a reduced up-front payment in cash and eBay stock at the close plus potential future earn-out payments which are based on performance-based goals for active users, gross profit and revenue.

The above-mentioned dollar and eBay share amounts are approximate, based on the Euro-Dollar exchange rate and eBay’s stock price as of September 9, 2005. The final value of the stock component of the consideration may vary significantly from this estimate based on the value of eBay stock at closing.

Skype generated approximately $7 million in revenues in 2004, and the company anticipates that it will generate an estimated $60 million in revenues in 2005 and more than $200 million in 2006. For Q4-05, eBay expects the acquisition to be dilutive to pro forma and GAAP earnings per share by $0.01 and $0.04 respectively. For the full year 2006, eBay expects the transaction to be dilutive to pro forma and GAAP earnings per share by $0.04 and $0.12 respectively, with breakeven on a pro forma basis expected in the fourth quarter of 2006. On a long-term basis, eBay expects Skype operating margins could be in the range of 20% to 25%.

The acquisition is subject to various closing conditions and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2005.
About eBay Inc.

Founded in 1995, eBay pioneers communities built on commerce, sustained by trust, and inspired by opportunity. eBay enables ecommerce on a local, national and international basis with an array of websites – including the eBay Marketplace, PayPal, Kijiji, Rent.com and Shopping.com – that bring together millions of buyers and sellers every day.

About Skype Technologies SA

Skype, the Global Internet Communications Company™, allows people everywhere to make free, unlimited, superior quality voice calls via its award-winning innovative peer-to-peer software for Windows, Linux, Mac OS X, and Pocket PC platforms. Skype is available in 27 languages and is the fastest growing voice communications offering worldwide. Since its launch in August 2003, Skype has been downloaded more than 163 million times in 225 countries and territories. Fifty-four million people are registered to use Skype’s free services, with over 3 million simultaneous users on the network at any one time. Skype Technologies SA is headquartered in Luxembourg and is growing its offices in London and Estonia.

Forward-Looking Statements

This announcement contains forward-looking statements regarding Skype and the expected impact of the acquisition of Skype on eBay’s financial results. Those statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ materially from those discussed. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, the timing of the closing of the transaction, the possibility that the transaction may not close, the reaction of the users of Skype’s services, the future growth of Skype’s user base and public acceptance of Internet voice communication services, rapid technological changes in the Internet voice communications sector, the reaction of competitors to the transaction, global developments in the regulation of Internet voice communication services including those provided by Skype, the possibility that integration of Skype’s offerings following the transaction may be more difficult than expected, and the possibility that entry by Skype and eBay into potential new lines of business will not be successful. More information about potential factors which could affect eBay’s business and financial results is included in eBay’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004, the company’s Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and current reports on Form 8-K. All forward-looking statements are based on information available to eBay on the date hereof, and eBay assumes no obligation to update such statements.

The eBay announcement:

***A New Way to Communicate***

I’m excited to let you know that eBay plans to acquire Skype, the leader in online voice communications.

Skype has set a new standard in online voice communications with
outstanding sound quality and unmatched ease of use. And like eBay,
Skype has a fast-growing community -- some 54 million Skype users
around the world already use their PCs to talk with one another.

And best of all, conversations between Skype users via PC are free. You
can get up and running on Skype in just a few minutes. Just go to http://www.skype.com/go/x.home to learn more and download the free Skype software application. Try it – it’s fun!

Over time, we intend to make voice communications a part of the eBay
marketplace – a huge step forward in making transactions faster and
easier, as well as bringing even more interactivity and humanity to the
eBay Community.

You can include your Skype ID in your About Me page. For now, however,
Skype links may not appear in View Item pages. We’ll be working with
you, our Community, over the next few weeks to thoughtfully work out
the details of how eBay and Skype will interact, including any policy
changes that may be required.

We expect this acquisition to be finalized soon. In the meantime, you can learn more about our Skype plans in the news release we issued just a few minutes ago.

Working together, eBay, PayPal and Skype will redefine online trade and
community. I hope you’ll join us in this exciting new chapter in eBay’s
history.

Sincerely,

Meg

TOM Online faces severe competitive and regulatory problems in China per reports compiled by Jirong Zhou. Jirong posted to his Zalbazone blog that TOM Online is not only far last in a three-way race for the Chinese IM market, but that major telecom operators are defending their own VoIP strategies (vaporware?) by blocking Skype.com and SkypeOut in major Chinese cities.

This is another example of telco incumbents aggressively defending their turf. Could Skype have picked a better partner, one with stronger guanxi, one better able to negotiate access to China's major markets and forge more alliances with China's regulators and incumbents? Right now they're walking away from SkypeOut revenue. How long until Chinese users get the same service as Skype users everywhere else?

The full article, including screenshots of the blockage and quotes from Tom.com CEO Wang Leilei follow...

From this post.

Cold Water

For Tom.com, third largest Portal in China
For Skype, world's largest VOIP player
For Tom Skype, their Joint Venture.

Just 3 days after Skype and TOM Online announced an exclusive joint venture (51% TOM Online, 49% Skype), there appeared a negative news on Sina's homepage, China's largest Portal. Telecom Operators are going to block Skype in ShenZheng, Shanghai, Beijing, GuangZhou. Red circled in the up picture.

I found the picture in Tom's Skype forum showing he is unable to login SkypeNet. A journalist from First Financial Daily reported his experience by calling China Telecom Shenzhen branches' 10000 service number. They said:

We detected that he used SkypeOut which is illegal to use. His number is in the black list. He must Guarantee not to use it any more. Or he will get the FINE.

Tom failed to land SkypeOut in June. And the Information Industry Department files that it is illegal to operate VOIP except the 6 Operators in China.

Within one year, TomSkype successfully get a 3.4M user group. It's an amazing rapid speed, however it still looks too slow, compared to Tencent's hundreds of Millions user group. Wang Leilei, Tom.com CEO, said,

"It's impossible to be profitable even if the 3.4M users are all using SkypeOut. So we are not going to seek opportunities to land Skypeout in the near future. The joint company is going to enrich user experiences with TomSkype."

Virtual Operators

Though it's illegal to offer VOIP Service, there are many operators making deals under the surface. Up to now only 263 got a pc to pc VOIP operating license.

Phone to Phone and PC to Phone are settled as basic Telecom service, only the 6 Operators has the legal identity to offer service. All other parties are designated as Virtual Operators. What's their fate?

[Posted by Jirong Zhou 2005-09-08 19:36:22. Mr. Zhou is business development and marketing director for Skype developer The Masters Team, maker of PowerGramo (coming into beta soon).]

I just got off of a call with Angelo (awake for 90 hours in Bahrain), Dina Mehta (from Mumbai and of Skype Journal), and Anna Lisa (Amsterdam) about setting up the KatrinaHelp Team's phone service. They are working with the Saturn ham radio operators to queue and relay calls for help from around Tulane. So they're setting up a local SkypeIn number and buying some SkypeOut time, about 20 euro for now. The volunteers, many of whom are alumni of Tsunami relief efforts, will follow the sun, handing off the account as they change shifts.

Two unresolved problems so far.

SMS. They need to receive and send SMS. Text will often get through to a mobile phone where voice calls fail. And these are life and death calls for help. The volume is low, fifty to a few hundred messages a day for the next few weeks. If you can help, Skype me (evanwolf) or Skype KatrinaHelp.

Payment. The other problem is that Skype still binds each account to just one payment option, typically a credit card. So the same person who pays for this account now is responsible for topping up the account for the life of the project. This could end up being a lot of money for one person. Right now we're assuming sponsors could reimburse our volunteer, but it would be better if others could buy SkypeOut minutes and transfer them to KatrinaHelp.

This is just one project. Grassroots. Independent. More to come.

UPDATE: See the KatrinaHelp home page if you want to join in.

UPDATE: Thanks to Jaanus Kaase, the official Share Skype blogger, for SkypeOut vouchers. Nice job, Jaanus. Blog on.

UPDATE: The volunteers:

• updated their Skype installs to the latest non-beta version,
• completed their purchase of SkypeIn and SkypeOut,
• set HotKeys so they can answer calls quickly,
• recorded voice mail messages,
• worked out that they couldn't have two people logged in with the same Skype name at the same time, and used SkypeOut to call the Tulane number. It worked!

UPDATE: Jaanus Kaase: "We have eased the payment limits on KatrinaHelp account so you should have no issues making further payments."

UPDATE: Connectotel's Marcus Williamson is setting up a Skype-to-SMS bridge for KatrinaHelp.

Hurricane Katrina refugees lost more than property. They are uprooted, sheared from the close friends and hundreds of acquaintances that make the social fabric of our lives. We can help them reconnect with old roots and plant new ones.

Goal: Help people easily form "tribes" sharing common affiliations or goals.

Examples: Survivors from a neighborhood. New settlers in a town. An extended family. Schoolmates. Coworkers. Health care workers seeking certification in a new state.

Specifically: Make it simple to provide the online/offline tools that help groups form and sustain themselves:

• Phone trees.
• List serves.
• Blogs and wikis.
• Conference calls.
• Chat rooms.
• Buddy lists.
• Meetups.
• And directories so people can find and join groups.

I was in the middle of some great General Tsou's chicken and the final battle in The Last Samurai when the phone rang. I paused the movie, swallowed and answered. It was a fundraiser for the wrong cause at the wrong time.

I wanted to be able to vote "thumbs down" on the caller, to affect their reputation, to reflect my frustration at their interrupting my breakfast (yes, breakfast).

Like other social networks, Skypenet users can benefit from an online reputation system. In the before, during and after Skype moments, you want to avail yourself of a caller's reputation.

• As part of a Skypenet enhanced caller ID, you want to screen potential callers. Screen using a bozo filter and white lists; for authentication (this is the real Michael Jordan calling); and for contextual screening (this call is for business vs. social vs. activism vs...).
• During a conversation you want to assess trustworthyness by context, for example I might trust you to sell me a collectible BB gun (an eBay rating) but not to watch my kids.
• As part of hanging up, I might want to give feedback to the caller, the caller's employer, the caller's professional network, et al; voting as closure.

As we become concerned about SPIT and telemarketing, reputation systems may play an important part and be a clear business model.

Questions:

1. Whose existing reputation systems do you trust?
2. What new ones would you like to see?
3. Which social norms for communication cross cultural borders?
4. And which don't?
5. Does Skype fail to meet or support cultural norms for telephony? How?

By Jean Mercier, Ghent, Belgium, Monday June 1, 2005

Some weeks ago I searched a way to record the users on-line without staying awake the whole night. Perhaps this is possible with the Skype API and some programming, but I am not a programmer anymore! But I found a trick ... View image

Some time ago I found also interesting data concerning the Skype Users by Country.
Of course Users on-line peak around 17h GMT+1 (means 16h GMT), because according to the Skype statistics more than 42% of the users are Europeans located in the GMT 0, GMT+1 and GMT+2 time zones. At the same moment the USA, Brazil and Canada and some other American countries are starting to work!

There is also a "dip" in the curve between 12h and 14h GMT+1! Could it be because a lot of Europeans are leaving the office to lunch, and log-off their Skype? And could it be that the other "dip" in the curve (around 6 AM) has something to do with the Americans (South and North) going out to lunch? Pure speculation, but if somebody has another explanation, I am willing to discuss it.

My curiosity did not

stop there. I recorded the data for a whole week. Here is the View image">chart:

I cheated for the data between Friday and Saturday, because Bill (not Campbell but Gates) decided to shut down my computer. So i had to complement with data of the following week.

Interesting to see that on Thursday and Friday the Users on-line begin to lower. And of course much more on Saturday and Sunday. This clearly indicates that Skype Users are mostly professional adult users.

And it begins to lower already on Thursday and Friday because some Countries (Muslim and Jewish religion) have their days off on Thursday, and/or Friday and/or Saturday, instead of Saturday and Sunday like in most "Christian" based cultures! But this is my personal guess!

What strengthens my opinion about the European and American lunch-time dip of the first graph, is that they clearly disapear on Saturday and Sunday: people are mostly at home!

Using the data of the above mentioned link about "Users by Country", and just for fun, I distributed the Skype Users in their respective time zones. For some countries I had to make an estimate and distribute them over several time zones (USA and Canada). Next I made an assumption: every Skype User is "working" during a twelve hours period on a computer! I plotted the data on a "24 hours chart" and I became this ...View image

Look at the similarity between this graph and the first graph of this Blog!
The discussion is open ... don't hesitate to post different opinions!