Is it all over for Skype? As Google Talk launched tonight with an Orkuttian viral shove provided by Gmail. At first glance it could be Skype's worst nightmare or the kick start necessary to refocus Skype. If you missed the buzz, Google Talk is the long awaited and predicted IM / Voice client. It won't be over for a while and the battle will take to the trenches with Yahoo, MSN and AOL battling to the end. This is a first salvo. Don't expect Google's feature set additions to follow Skype's path immediately to Telecom as Google has other opportunities sitting there within its empire. These are my first impressions.

• Extreme Simplicity. If you have a Gmail account you can just log in. The client is very simple.
  
• Find buddies quickly. If they are in Gmail then you can make hundreds of invites very quickly. Authorization is simple.
  
• Presence. Simplified and more intelligent than ever with customized field options that add new fun to presence. It's about time!
  
• Chat. Very basic, no emoticons etc. Still it's clean and archived and I bet searchable (if not now soon) by google desktop. Chat uses XMPP and thus iChat and Jabber clients can connect directly to Google Talk. You can also add it immediately to Trillian. (Trillian could be quite a winner). Guess that will put Google Talk presence on mobiles too!
  
• Talk. Talk is chat centric. Ie click to chat rather than Skype's click to call. Clicking opens a chat dialogue box. You then initiate a call from the chat window. Talk quality matches Skype and is better than Yahoo.
  
• Chat Window Organization. Windows self organize in an interesting fashion until closed.
  
• No profiles and no friendly pictures at this time.

How it really worked.

I had 8 conversations all around the world. Some of the voice connections didn't connect immediately and felt like they failed. There was just no sound. Sometimes the sound started after the call was connected for 30 seconds or more. This is likely just a short term bug. I enjoyed the inbound ring tone. Distinctively different from Skype. The invite process was very simple, building my list very elegant.

What's Missing?

From a Skype user's point of view: Almost everything. There are no profiles, no photos / pictures, no voice mail, no multi-conference or multi-chat. Plus there is no SkypeIn or SkypeOut capabilities. This is not a phone replacement. The multi-chat and conference calling should be easy to duplicate. The telephone system more difficut. However, each name is a SIP name and that is designed to connect with Vling and Gizmo project in a very short time. Plus with rumors around Google raising money, a TMobile USA purchase can't be that far away. That would provide a user base, the WiFi hotspots and most importantly the chance to integrate mobile numbers with VoIP.

Where's the Strength?

Talk is already integrated with Gmail and thus links nicely with IG, Google's personal content portal. So when will GoogleTalk have access to Orkut (profiles / social networking - pictures and profiles) Blogger (another place to share presence), Desktop (archive searching), Maps (location information) and instantly the whole Jabber/XMPP community. How quickly can Google bring these all together. Then they already have a photosharing program etc. Google has all the elements to bulk up to a Yahoo like client very quickly. Add in Ad Sense etc. Very neat models are likely to emerge. I heard from one punter tonight they had told their mother to buy more Google shares.

Developer Talk

Google has a great page outlining their preliminary plans and open strategy for the future of "talk."

Google's mission is to make the world's information universally accessible and useful. Google Talk, which enables users to instantly communicate with friends, family, and colleagues via voice calls and instant messaging, reflects our belief that communications should be accessible and useful as well. We're committed to open communications standards, and want to offer Google Talk users and users of other service providers alike the flexibility to choose which clients, service providers, and platforms they use for their communication needs.
Google

How does Skype stack up? Yahoo?

• Google may win on philosopjy alone (see above mission) or the resources in dolars and manpower. However today, while Google may get it's Orkuttian swell of new users isn't actually an acceptable replacement client for either Skype or Yahoo. Both do more better for their current audiences.
• On features, Skype is still ahead and if they would speed up their development and releases of call forwarding, VM improvements, Video, and their Presence Server they still have a chance althougth the market has shifted dramatically. Yahoo is bulking up however still does nothing really well. That may change.

Where should Skype's strategy start?

Open Up! By contrast with Google, Skype is on a philosophical back foot, well balanced. Being closed is no longer an asset, so Skype can compete only on its design, features and capabilities. To open up, the Skype chat client must adopt the Jabber/XMPP protocol, accelerating its interconnect and encouraging developers to "stick" / "start" developing products around the API. So far Google hasn't announced an API (count the hours). They will need one even if just for hardware. Skype will be forced to open up many aspects of its interface now.

Michael Robertson was caught talking to Chris Pirillo on the Gizmo Poject today. They are using Gizmo to record the session. He openly discusses what's good about Gizmo (e.g. the recording features) and provides some useful background on why he started with hardware at SIPPhone and effectively copied Skype. I've paraphrased the podcast. Time approx 30 minutes. Download or read the summary.

When I started Sipphone we focused on the hardware because we thought a market for soft phones would emerge. However with the exception of Skype no one did a good job on software. So frustrated 9 months ago, we decided to build our own client. Our goal is to build an open directory. I don't think we will knock Skype out of the running. I do hope that embracing open standards and openness will win the day in the long run. Skype has a huge lead and yet the world does change very quickly. We will be adding IM functionality to the product. Haven't started working on video. Will people really use it? It's fairly straightforward to add in for SIP and then setup video sessions. IM is the next big feature set we are adding. (Chris asks... how do I know it is recording. Skype is really missing the record feature). Now you can add sound effects while the call is happening. (Chris barfs....).

We are SIP based so we can use a regular phone to call any Gizmo client and vice versa. That is one of the benefits for connecting different networks from universities to small businesses. So you can dial direct using Gizmo. Want a real openness with our directory.

We are still in the earliest stage of VoIP. I talked to a major telco and they said we don't see the average consumer making calls on a PC. I got the same response years ago with people saying users won't play MP3's on PC's. Questioned about Mobile. The only hope to fundamentally compete with the wireless guys is WiMax. We need to watch how it develops and see how it delivers on its promise.

How long do you give Yahoo, AOL and Microsoft? Several examples today. eg Apple iChat that bastardizes SIP. MS Messenger and Windows use SIP but what it doesn't do is allow the tech details to go through firewalls. So far not done GIPS so voice isn't competitive. It astounds me that more people haven't taken a deeper look at Skype and followed a lot of their design choices like using GIPS.

You get free VoiceMail with Gizmo -- no charge it is included with your free account. If we tick advantages... recording the call, voicemail, we are not P2P like Skype so as an advantage we never commandeer your computer to route calls etc. We have chosen a different topography where we deploy relay servers around the world to assist in the routing of calls. Listen Skype has done a good job and they are a good marker. They do inflate their download numbers. We have an auto update feature built right in. We have a lot of catching up still to do. I do think that with the right partners we can close the gaps real quickly.

The challenge of the UI is to come up with the right balance between voice and IM. The challenge is how you balance these fairly different functionalities. We will have to make up a lot of it as we go on.