Skype is about to release SkypeWeb ("Hi, world, I'm on Skype!" on your blog) as a hosted web service. Right now it will just catch up with the neighbors (AOL, Yahoo!, and MSN all have presence services). This will be free.

That's stage 1 as I see it. Wide-open public presence.

Stage 2 adds a range of personal controls.

It starts with faceted presence. That's when I have more than one identity: "Phil Wolff, Editor of Skype Journal", "Member of the Wolff family", "student in Piedmont Community College Monday night Mandarin 1 class". Each identity's presence is customized for each requestor of that presence. Members of my bowling team can know I'm out of town. My family can always reach me. My colleagues can see me during office hours. SkypeWeb hides my cell phone from most of my clients but my boss and my big customers can always see it. Cheaper than voice mail and priced like caller ID or an unlisted phone number.

Stage 3 is where the money comes in. Shrink-wrap the SkypeWeb presence server. Let enterprises run and manage their own servers, inside the intranet, in their DMZs. CIOs should be integrating finely tuned presence into CRM apps, collaboration toolkits, HR/directory services, phone systems, etc. Licence to online markets (like Microsoft Live Expo, Craigslist, Amazon) who encourage conversation among like-minded buyers and sellers.

The eBay impact: Skype presence becomes a competitive advantage among sellers, especially for complex goods and always for billable services.

Developer ecosystem impact: This can become good for the Skype developer community, integrating faceted presence with other systems. For example, creating collective presence where quorums trigger calls and call negotiation where caller attributes, constraints, goals, and priorities inform schedules.

This depends on:

• Continued investment in SkypeWeb,
• Effectively communicating their commitment to platforming SkypeWeb, and
• Leading (or at least responding) to the other companies entering the presence space.