ces2006
Phil's after-beer Skype predictions and wishlist
Live from Las Vegas #017: Meet Phil Wolff (Skype Journal) [English]
Download: Movie (.mp4)More information on the skypejournal.com.
Phil gives us his top 2 predictions for 2006 related to Skype, and his 2 dream features for the next release of Skype.
Update: taken at the CES camp with my Nokia N90.
See also a short clip of Stuart Henshall playing with his Nokia N90.
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CES Notes: Intel
Intel's booth had a Skype station with Skype running on a Dual Centrino laptop. If you're here over the weekend, they're passing out free Skype gift packs with head phones and 30 SkypeOut credits. Skype remains an underground, unofficial tool at Intel (at PayPal too), adopted by teams and departments to get their work done. Where's the tipping point where IT can no longer ignore the smuggled contraband and either endorses/supports it or bans it and kills it off? Sounds like like we should set up an office pool: "On what date in 2006 will Intel IT officially support Skype for internal use?" Payable next CES.
I talked with an Intel system builder, one of the independents who build PCs from Intel products for retail. He packages the CD/DVD from Intel that includes Skype with every system he makes. He doesn't, however, install Skype on top of Windows. Does this really help Skype's circulation? What is the conversion rate to installation and adoption?
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CES notes: Microsoft Live Messenger
Microsoft demoed Windows Live Messenger (WLM) beta on the show floor. (Snapshots coming soon.) Better looking than MSN Messenger 7.5 (lots of cutesy user interface removed, panes better organized) but it's a small point. One rep claimed the Messenger Beta is better than Skype because:
- audio quality ("we played with the codecs"),
- integration of identity and contacts across the Live family (hotmail/live mail),
- third party apps delivered through the system, and
- having more users (about 200 million) than anyone else.
I have to agree with him about the convenience and power of a common Passport/Live identity. The convenience of single sign-on is a great draw. And having more people in your ID cloud and in connected clouds (like Yahoo!'s someday soon) builds critical mass. It is unclear, by the way, if the IM interop agreement with Yahoo! extends to voice.
Someone in the crowd pressed him on the number of users, asking specifics on the number of active voice/telephony users. He didn't know. I suspect, given the low emphasis of voice in past UIs, there is an infinitessimal but quickly growing body of MSN voice regulars. Helping the average MSN user become multimodal (text to voice) will be a challenge as steep as Skype's (voice to video).
Two other points: Windows Live Messenger voice calls will not support voice conferencing. And users must cut a deal with MCI for call-out services. Both put Microsoft at a disadvantage vs. Skype.
But I'm not worried for Microsoft. Most Microsoft products take years of iteration to mature, and their move to thrice yearly release cycles will help Microsoft overcome these weakness. Their platforming tradition may prevail over short-term walled garden opportunities. What's more, the power of incumbency is real, as is their willingness to explore new ideas. Skype's race for users, features, and new ideas is still a very high stakes game.
See also: the blog, the product page, the faq.
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almost out the door to CES
I should be in Vegas in about 12 hours, boarding a plane in 8, getting up in 4 or 5. So not ready: still packing, looking up contacts, keying up a week of TiVo. Bought the most boring walking shoes on Earth; built in spring coils in the soles (guaranteed to set off airport security alarms). I'm thinking of CES as a gadgety walkabout, hundreds of kilometers of carpeted concrete to navigate.
I want to meet people there, old friends, online colleagues, and some of the people who are hawking today's gear but are sketching out the 2008-2009 time frame for their industry segments.
I'll have to nap on the plane but at CES I want to see:
- who brings video waaay down in price so it becomes a baseline capability of all hardware.
- the most unexpected hardware convergence (where's my Skype Certified espresso machine?)
- products beautifully niched, especially for those over 65 years old.
- how eBay staffs and works the conference and the show (several Skype sales people are speaking, some Skype partners are taking up a little bit of eBay's booth)
- who is really catering to whom
- hospitality suites with real product demos and the people who design them
- if anyone thinking beyond the cell phone has money to spend on show space
- products designed for developing economies
The whole "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" slogan sure doesn't work for the tens of thousands of reporters decending on the trade show. It could happen, though, if mobile reception and the internet are as swamped and scarce as everyone warns me. More later. Sleep now.
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See you at CES 2006 in Las Vegas
Stuart Henshall and I will be going to the International Consumer Electronics Show in January.
Will you be there shopping or selling? Leave a comment that you're going and maybe we can swing by your suite or booth or party or demo or swimming pool or limo or ... Stuart remains on a mission to find the ultimate Skype-smart headphones. As for me, I've never been a gearhead. But gadgets are how we experience and mediate conversation and I want to grok the product pipeline furnishing our Conversation 3.0 lifestyle. January 5-8.
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Phil's after-beer Skype predictions and wishlist
