by Hudson Barton

Skype's concurrent users online just hit 8 million. We can therefore expect to see breathless reports about the number of days it took to get another million and how long it is going to take to get another. But these are not useful measurements of Skype's success. Skype doesn't give us much information, but there are better ways of interpreting the data we have than looking at the peak of the graph.

Skype usage at the peak time (around 16 GMT) is a combination mainly of European users and users in the eastern half of America. These are two of Skype's largest populations and they are online concurrently. Measuring at this peak has become the standard measurement of Skype growth, but it is not very useful. I prefer to measure at other times.

Skype usage in Europe (and Africa) is best reflected with data sampled at 11-12 GMT, before America's work day starts. American (North and South) usage is seen most accurately at 19-20 GMT. Asian (and Pacific) data should be sampled at 2-3 GMT. At each of these three points in time, the influence of one continent is maximized while the influence of the other two continents is minimized. Of course, Skype usage on the three continents is not perfectly segregated by this method (because some users stay online for extended periods), but it is segregated enough to use for comparison purposes.

This method of measurement permits one to analyze Skype growth in ways that are not possible when one looks only at the peak number. One can see for example a difference in growth rates between the continents. Or by comparing the rates of growth on specific weekdays and weekend days one can discern whether growth on each continent is being driven by business usage or non-business usage.

I have been measuring Skype usage in this way for about a month (my historical data is supplied by Jean Mercier, "The Skype Numerologist."). In a few more months of detailed daily measurement, we will be able to conclude much more than we can presently.

So what can we conclude from the data so far? On this day of surpassing the meaningless waypoint of 8 million concurrent users online, let's just say this: Historically, Skype usage in Europe has slightly underpaced that of America and Asia. In more recent months, this trend has continued and perhaps accelerated.

Note: Two factors are at play in the data; the actual number of active users and the user's average time online. It is difficult to distinguish which factor is driving "concurrent users online".