Previous | Home | Next
Stuart Henshall
More by Author

Is Texting (SMS) Killing Chat?

September 21, 2006 05:56 PM

Topics:

I'm getting back to blogging. I expect a few of my posts will turn up here on Skype Journal. For the most part that will be Phil's choice.They will also be posted on Unbound Spiral my personal blog and opinion. I first wrote about Skype there. I also wrote about many other topics, including Disruptive Innovation, Social Networking, Conversational Blogging, Identity, COMsumers, Strategy. I was less "bound" there than when blogging for SkypeJournal where I thought "product reviews", competiive activity and category directed VoIP insights were most important. Most importantly what kept me blogging Skype was the question. "What's your Skype strategy?" It's still important if you are at that stage. It's not the question to focus attention across the broader VoIP segment today. To ask my new question would be premature. Instead here's a teaser. Nice to reconnect. Let's restart the conversation. I've missed blogging. No excuse other than having had my head down and now time to start reaching out.

Is Texting (SMS) killing Chat?
Is there a future for IM as we know it? Instant Messaging? Does it remain a killer application? Or are Skype, Yahoo, Aim, MSN etc... all fatally flawed? Why do mobile operators and handset manufacturers ignore the facts. Why does my mobile remain call centric in a text centric world? I don't know the answer. I did want a provocative intro, share some observations, note some reservations and almost jump to some conclusions..... I'll start with a story about my kids.

Early this year T-Mobile USA announced a special family deal for unlimited text messaging. Then it was $9.99 (all you could eat family of four) today the same option is $19.99. Concurrently they raised individual text message charges to 10cents for both receiving and sending from 5 cents. Until that point my kids had effectively been banned from text messaging. Something that may seem strange in other countries encouraged by other cost structures. I changed my plan. My kids now have unlimted text messaging.

The outcome. In every month since, my two kids (14 and 17) have averaged 500 text messages inbound and outbound. As a family we went from maybe 30 text messages a month to over 2000 (in and out combined). I've watched this pattern now for six months. It's a static level and my kids operate now in a different paradigm.

Changing Texting Observations.

  • Circle of Friends: The kids text within an inner circle. It's a relatively small group. From this group they like the interruptions or pings of a new message coming in. My son in particular will often text rather than call. They use text messaging in a real-time way. For the most part they answer and have short exchanges. Calls don't happen unless its free time or there is some quick organizing to do. Meeting where, driving etc.

  • Less IM: My daughter has all but abandoned AIM. My son continues to use IM systems however, it's not the primary mode of communication. The mobile is. From what I see / observe / and they have reported they use IM significantly less now than six months ago. Most of their friends I think are similar. They too have unlimited text messaging. I'd make some observations about their phones separately.

  • Locked Down. IM systems are often locked down. Privacy limits communications to buddies if a "spam" problem exists. The mobile is also locked down currently. It costs money to call or send a message.. although from their perspective messaging is now free. An important aspect and possible change here. Their mobile number is more important than their AIM handle. It's the always on connection for them. It's also privacy related.

  • Presence: The current availability, away, not available etc. presence message isn't doing anything to retain users. (I'll look at that in more detail in a separate post.) Where there is already intimacy with an inner circle of friends "you know" roughly what they are up to. Need proof? Why is it that voice centric IM clients like Skype simply result in chats "can you talk now / context?" first? Simply, the presence systems aren't adding major value.

My Reservations:
Let's face it. This is pretty anecdotal evidence from my point of view. Still I'd not make the comments without thinking about what I'm seeing both in India and the US concurrently. In some areas I can hold my kids up as average, in others I know they have many opportunities not available to others. What I'd conclude is their behavior is simply what happens when they can text all they want. Until recently that "all you want" existed only on IM and I've made other observations before about how that slight asynchronous nature is a plus for them. I'd note that they can not call all they want. We have a deal with T-Mobile that allows unlimited weekend and evening calling after 9:00pm plus free calling between us. You can imagine the minutes in those free zones. We share a family 800 minutes plan. The kids know they have 200 minutes each. That's basically 10 minutes calling per day. My daughter's total time regularly approaches 1000 minutes per month (This doesn't come close to her home phone usage). My son more like 600. Most of this is with a small circle of friends.

Additional Thoughts.

  • Mobile texting is cannibalizing AIM / Yahoo / MSN / Skype etc. Skype's saving grace may be it is best integrated with telephony and SMS.(Alas no SMS to Skype! and the rates!!!!!!!!). Despite lack of presence, profiles, and privacy controls, mobile texting appears to have an advantage over chat. It is simply in the palm of your hand.

  • Mobile IM clients: For the most part I'm not seeing them used. There is currently little reason to go via IM when you can go via a text message. There is no cost benefit and from a useability point of view launching such clients takes time and often involves more clicks than just sending the text message. It's also hard to keep these IM clients running on the mobile. I know I use them.

  • Mobile solutions are way behind in many areas. Presence, Profiles, Notifications etc. Texting remains very basic.

  • IM Instant Messaging may be losing to basic utility in the palm of one's hand. Using Skype all day I'd always prefer it over my mobile. Have you ever seen a mobile that is click to text? Can you set yours that way? I haven't! That's got to be typical of mobile operators that are working their wallets rather than what customers want. It seems clear to me. Text exchanges dwarf calls and yet mobiles remain call centric devices. And yes sometimes (Eg driving with a bluetooth headset) they need to be that way. I stop them texting when they are driving me in India!!!!!!!!

  • Second, texting is more unified than any chat system. For telephone numbers are simply more pervasive. No need to manage multiple systems and log-ons. Then for someone who came to texting via IM, I find the control the mobile operator has over my number scary. Similarly, email is pervasive, however the cost "zero" means that spam is the killer. Wait till that reaches your mobile.

  • Lastly, till recently I thought that the IM systems were increasingly having the upper hand with where mobile communications was going. The click to talk/chat paradigm, the easy sharing of files. Nice profiles, opportunities for social networking. Even the failed "presence" systems. The belief based on when everyone gets a 3G connection then IM will rule the mobile. I'd suggest that this is a battle that is far from over.


I'd also suggest that this IM/Text paradigm is the wrong way to think about the battle for your access. That could be another story and may keep me back blogging! Still what do you think? Does Texting really have a leg up on Chat? What does Texting (SMS) need to kill chat in the next generation? Will it come from Mobile Operators or somewhere else?

Note: Written while sleepless at 4:00am Indian Standard Time. My fifty plus hour trip this time really messed with my sleep patterns. Something that usually I don't have a problem with.

Post | Email | Print | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)



Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.skypejournal.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/2526

Comments

Posted by: Aydin Mirzaee at September 21, 2006 7:26 PM

Hi, Great Post!
Just wanted to say that now you can send text messages to your Skype client... however, you can't receive them in the form of text! You will actually hear them being read to you...

Aydin.

Posted by: Ramki at September 22, 2006 12:56 AM

I would add few points here ,apart from what has been detailed in the article.

1.IM chat is one continous experience .It is required where you have a conversation.Say ,Im in US and my fiancee in INDIA ,IM chat plays the cupid !SMS-Better Luck Next Time :)

2.Secondly IM has these themes ,audibles etc to make the experience quite different.But the question is -How many need it ? SMS is for u know ,short messages ,short conversations..but you may do multiple 'short' conversations .

3.SMS VS IM is like a battle between Always ON Vs PLanned Conversation.Like, my mobile is always ON,but my laptop where my yahoo is running is'nt always ON.


4.It would be intresting to note that both IM and SMS offer you the facility of hiding behind the bits -meaning your feelings ,emotions ,fears can be disguised in the text (IM or SMS).WOuld it not be better if you chat with your BOSS rather than talk with him ?

Summing it up,i would say SMS has created new demands and they would eat up some specified percentage of IM market ,considering the fact that people want to connect as quick as possible.WHen you meet somebody new,u don't ask their yahoo-id-Do You ?
IM will still remain for few selected usages.

Posted by: Stuart [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 22, 2006 1:58 AM

Ramaki, Great comments and additions. Thank you. I agree with your points one and two although I'd note that the less chatty texting format is being used like IM. IM exchanges tend to be longer, and I'd agree that emoticons, audibles etc. add something extra to it.

Like your summary, I think the time is ripe for something new. There is learning to be had from both camps for the next generation product.

Posted by: Hans Blaauw at September 22, 2006 5:11 AM

Good post and observations but i think in Europe it could be different. SMS has always been a big market in here and still is. Although i notice that here in the Netherlands MSN is very popular. But you are right with mobiles. Around a age of 14 most kids have a mobile in here i believe and that mobile only has SMS. Although pricing is still a little bit high it is easy for most kids. Another advantage is that lots of kids use a computer managed by a parent to send IM messages, on a mobile they don´t have that problem.

It would be good to have a device with flatfee data, GPRS or UMTS, and a chat client or even Skype. T Mobile has a flatfee EUR 10 a month in here for data and that is cheap. But most phones don´t support IM yet.

GPRS or even UMTS with Skype sucks mostly. HSDPA will be better but starts around EUR 50 a month.

Flatfee HSDPA for around EUR 10 per month and a device like the Mylo would be something for kids!

Posted by: cooli at September 22, 2006 7:32 PM

Hi, good points but I think we miss the key point:
- SMS is IMHO a poor implementation of mobile IM (no blame, its usage was not even intended ;).
- Why SMS is still king on mobile is because:
- it is working out of the box and always on with your phone number/subscription
- ubiquous reach (thanks now to proper sms interconnections between operators)

Now you take the implementation of IM in the PC world and its features (real-time chat, smileys, ...) and you put it on par with sms:
- pre-installed (and pre-launched) in your phone, works out of box, integrated in phone UI and functions (e.g. phonebook)
- all IM islands (MSN, Yahoo, ...) can talk to each other or you have multi-IM-account support a la Agile messenger
- always-on flat-rate data plan i.e. illimited texting.

And then it is quite clear that SMS does not stand a chance anymore.

I use a lot mobile IM thanks to the very good Agile messenger (if only all my friends had it also on their phones). I can say that it is killer application for me and that services/features like picture messaging (MMS), PTT/POC are only used by me as part of the IM user interface of Agile messenger.

So all in all, we just need to wait a bit more to see a real SMS 2.0 or decent mobile IM for everybody.

Cheers - cooli.

PS: great to have you back Stuart, I was deeply missing your hindsight and thorough articles.

Posted by: Stuart [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 23, 2006 1:00 AM

Cooli, Yep, we are on the same page. I use AgileMessenger on my phone (a Nokia N80 - with wifi). If my whole phone and all my contacts... everyone was really on it and I could make a chat call too... then I'd be a lot closer to what I want.

I know very few people that have data connections. I won't buy them for my kids etc. Pricing and control issues is basically holding back something mobile users want.

I've used Yahoo's Hutch mobile solution in India. It works very effectively over SMS. However it costs more than SMS. Thus the only real reason to use it... is the desire for an alias and thus to hide your real number. Jangl is creating something similar for voice.

I think I'll work on another post. We can take this track in a few more directions. Ultimately the key is the cost of data plans. As you know a flat rate dataplan and agile provides a great solution.

We also need to look at how one can merge all your IM accounts with your mobile address book for one seamless experience.

Posted by: aaytch at September 24, 2006 5:43 AM

Texting is cannibalizing other IM services more than Skype's IM service. There are several reasons. First, you can IM someone in Skype even when they are offline. Presence with Skype is a feature but it is not required. Inbound IM's (from another Skyper) very much like SMS, and much more like SMS than other IM services. Second, you actually can SMS someone with Skype (outbound), so SMS becomes an adjunct to Skype's IM/Voice/Video/Fileshare services.

In general, I feel that SMS will lose out to the more advanced services patterned after IM. Devices like the new Sony Mylo really are "in the palm of your hand" just like a cellphone, so that will make IM just as convenient as SMS assuming there is WIFI available. Also, as cellular/mobile networks add data services with EV-DO, HSDPA, WIMAX etc., IM will have the same mobility as SMS.

Posted by: Paul Jardine [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 26, 2006 12:04 AM

Stuart, great to have you back, your insight has been sorely missed.
As cooli said, once you put IM on a mobile device, pre-installed and integrated with the phonebook features, then SMS would cease to be at an advantage.
The key point is that it is used with a close circle of friends, because those are the people who we have 'conversations' with. In that close circle, presence indeed does have limited value. Certainly less than mobility.
Right now, it is still a trade-off and mobile wins because it is of primary importance. The interface and functionality (160 chars) matter less than the ability to access it anywhere.
The future has to be IM on mobile devices, though, as SMS was not even designed as a retail messaging system!
Handset/device manufacturers will be the ones who decide who will win (Text vs IM), and I think the new devices on the market say a lot about where to place the bets! aaytch has the same view...

Posted by: John Cosgrove at September 28, 2006 2:19 PM

Coming from New Zealand I would have to say that i have noticed a totally different trend. Here texting is virtually free (compared to calling) and so while it has stolen a small amount from IM, what really has suffered is mobile calling. Looking at the usage of all of my friends (around the 18-22 age group) all of us would send over 300 SMS per month, (recieving is not charged so i dont know how many that is) with many people exceeding 1000. Few would make more than a single call, if that, and then only for really long (eg >5min) conversations, everything shorter is just txted. Basically SMS has become a universal mobile IM service, and has become a requirement for almost all communication. A person without a cell phone really is an island in this modern world

Post a comment




Remember Me?

(you may use HTML tags for style)





Other Recent Posts

Skype 3.0 Folder Pollution in Life | Products | Skype杂志 | complaints | design | ebay | skype | skypejournal | voip | wishlist on 11/22/06

Skype 3.0 Beta for Windows; bugfix build 137 in General Notices | News | Products | Skype News | Skype杂志 | ebay | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/22/06

Skype PR Wake Up Call III: The Commentary in Business | Every Post | Ideas & Views | Marketing | Skype News | Skype杂志 | Strategy | ebay | observations | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/22/06

Wednesday morning scan in Business | Life | Marketing | News | Products | Skype Partner Watch | Skype杂志 | Strategy | Technology | Tips & Tricks | Yahoo | counterpoints | design | ebay | freedom | observations | regulation | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/22/06

Yes, TalkPlus reverse engineered Skype. in Developers | North America | Skype Partner Watch | Skype杂志 | Strategy | Technology | ebay | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/21/06

Email to a friend