I believed I had proof concerning the success of the free "SkypeOut" marketing campaign of Skype in the USA and Canada.
But then a clever reader named Adrian made the following comment:
"A security issue/fix was announced on May 19th, so the burst in traffic is more likely to be existing users upgrading to version 2.0.0.105 which is dated May 15th."
I have to admit I overlooked this "security bulletin" and that this certainly had an impact on the number of downloads. He could be right, and I could be wrong!
Therefore I continued to watch closely "my" numbers.
It is now about 15 days since Skype published its Security warning, and about 20 days since it launched its marketing campaign in the US and Canada. The speed of downloading has not diminished yet! In fact there are about 10 million downloads more then should have been expected before May 19.
And, around March 26, the speed was fluctuating between 180 and 530 downloads per minute depending on the time of the day, see also my post here (see: http://www.skypejournal.com/blog/archives/2006/04/skype_is_still_growing.php)!
Now, it is fluctuating between 350 and 1350 downloads/minute! It has more then doubled!
I therefore compared the users online between Thursday March 23 and Thursday June 1:
While the bottom of the curve is still about the same (3.5 million online at 0 h GMT), the peak of the curve has increased by 650.000 new users (6.5 million online at peak time, peak being around 15h GMT)!
Although this is only an average increase of 10000 new users online per day (at peak time) between those two dates, the average increase is now 14000 new users online per day in the last 2 weeks. So, in my opinion, yes, the North Americans are responsible for this acceleration.
And there is another point that makes me think this: the bottom of the curve has risen very slightly between the two dates, about 1.5%. But the top of the curve has risen by 11%! The top of the curve indeed is the time most Americans (North and South) are awake!
The next weeks will definitely be important to see if Skype continues to convince North-Americans to adopt their software. Last year, from the beginning of June till the end of August there was a clear slowdown of users online, see also my post here
Some days ago I had the feeling that we would reach 7 million concurrent users online somewhere in the third week of June. I however think that we will have to be patient and wait for September to reach that number. Because at the actual growth of 14000 daily new users online at peak time, we need some 30 days to cross the 7 million line, and I am almost sure by then Skype will experience the "Northern Hemisphere summer slowdown"!
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.skypejournal.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/2325
Comments
Posted by: Lucas Temelton at June 6, 2006 4:05 AM
One thing that is both surprising and worrying is that Skype is stuck at around 3.5 million users at 0 GMT. Does this mean growth is Asia is exhausted? presumably they are the ones who are awake around this time.
But is it the growth of Skype that is exhausted or the Internet penetration rate that is not growing fast enough in Asia?
Posted by: MuppetMaster at June 6, 2006 11:17 PM
Very easy to go from virtually zero in a market to 'some' users. Not really impressive, and I have never given the downloads much credit as they reflect every time anyone downloads.
Hey Muppet,
I agree concerning the downloads, but i have only three numbers available right now from Skype:
1. Concurrent Users online
2. Downloads
3. Order numbers (when i place myself an order)
So ... that is what i have to make my analysis with. And of course there is quite some speculation in my statements. Anyway, the comment of Lucas above concerned "concurrent users online"!
Hey Muppet,
I agree concerning the downloads, but i have only three numbers available right now from Skype:
1. Concurrent Users online
2. Downloads
3. Order numbers (when i place myself an order)
So ... that is what i have to make my analysis with. And of course there is quite some speculation in my statements. Anyway, the comment of Lucas above concerned "concurrent users online"!
Very easy to go from virtually zero in a market to 'some' users. Not really impressive, and I have never given the downloads much credit as they reflect every time anyone downloads.
One thing that is both surprising and worrying is that Skype is stuck at around 3.5 million users at 0 GMT. Does this mean growth is Asia is exhausted? presumably they are the ones who are awake around this time.