Bill Campbell

Numbers, Community and Brand

June 4, 2006 04:03 PM

Topics: Life

Who cares about the number of Skype downloads? Who cares about there being over 6 million concurrent users on Skype? Who cares about minutes served? Probably most of the 30 M active (weekly) users in the Skype Community. Even if they don't know it.

Our guest blogger Jean Mercier cares. He is Skype Journal's numerologist. (grin)

You gotta believe eBay and Skype executives also care about numbers. After all when they bought Skype they paid 2.5 billion plus 1.5 billion bonus due and payable once certain numbers are met.

One number I will bet they are worried sick about is the user penetration of Skype in the US:

tn7_Skypepenetration.png

This chart is based on the total numbers of Internet Users per country as listed in the CIA Factbook.

The chart is from page 230 of the eBay Analyst Day report.

The CIA Factbook shows the world with about 1000 Million Internet Users. With Skype claiming 100 million registered user names then Skype has about 10 percent of all Internet users. Since 68 percent of the population of the US uses the Internet and 84 milion of them have a broadband connection one would except the adoption of Skype would be higher in the US than in most other countries.

There is a short fall of 18 million users in the US. If I wanted to be a Global Telecom Brand I would be working desperately to find those missing millions. I don't think free SkypeOut will do it. Do you think it will?

eBay reports 6 million Skype Users in the US. Every week 138 million people visit a Wal-Mart, American Idols draws 30 million viewers, West Wing in its peak would draw 79 million. That proves there are still people south of me moving about. Why is the adoption rate so low for Skype?

Tell us your ideas.




Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.skypejournal.com/cgi-bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/2327

Posts linking to Numbers, Community and Brand:

» Skype calls all American's from Skype Journal
Skype made waves around the world last month with a free offer to North Americans. Free SkypeOut calls intracontinental. Now this: Skype is offering its U.S.-based users one hour of free international calling to landline phones in 30 countries around t... [Read More]

Tracked on June 21, 2006 12:25 PM

» Does Skype exist? from Skype Journal
Does Skype exist? Most of us handle a similar, but personal question about God quite early on in life. We all come to some conclusion. A couple of weeks back while traveling with Linda I asked myself, "Does Skype exist?" Not for myself, but I was wonde... [Read More]

Tracked on August 1, 2006 9:11 PM

Comments

Posted by: tropicaljantie at June 4, 2006 7:49 PM

First off all. It is a global phenomenon we are trying to understand and place in the right persective. Secondly : I love it, but I hate it too sometimes. Here is my quick take on the question above :

The reason why Skype has such a "slow" adaption rate is :


- because the world is only starting to move from STONE AGE to IP AGE on the level of telephony. many people don't know about VoIP and neither about skype.

- because globally some governments and telecoms do their best to keep skype outside of their region. same goes for companies.

- because skype is working for ebay, which is their focus and biggest customer. skype does not care or is not ready to the small medium size companies. they cannot support and entertain that audience.

- because the global infiltration of the market has only started (2 years ago skype "did not exist" even 1 year ago).

- because there are lot's of alternatives like SIP and related, which also work and which are open source.

- because it does not advertise on TV or on traditional media.

- because it has only started trying really look at the world like a market (thanks to ebay)

- because the incentives for being a skype "business channel" are very low

- because there are very little operational wimax networks that provide connectivity for skype wifi phones.

- because there is not real support system for the user. who you gonna call if you have a real problem ? the ghost-busters ? the skype-busters ?

- because there are less computergeeks than normal people. skype is still for computergeeks

- because skype is not really a manageable instrument for many companies who want support from skype authorized reseller, advice from skype authorized consultants and related.

- because is perceive (rightfully or not, it's in the minds eye) as something not totally safe and secure. think about the multiple login feature, some flaws in the public password reset, the abscence of fast support procedure, monitoring possibilities. there is not much in between you and skype. maybe that will change. it is an anonymous system and therefore there is not accountability from within. you must set this up yourself.

- because many ICT professionals don't see the business value proposition of skype "can I make money with it". they also don't really have a good strategy or insight in how to bring skype on the market and create a recurrent customer. therefore they just let it happen and see what happens. skype is only starting developing such business channels right now.

- because it could potentially turn your communications into the first global advertising and spamming telephone.

Posted by: Mike B at June 4, 2006 8:02 PM

I believe US usage is low compared to other countries as:
- long distance and international rates are quite low.
- the US is a large country in which the amount of international traffic is low (compared to europe). (The only country the average American knows exists is Iraq... )
- People have long distance as part of their cellphone plans (can be setup with free family calls)
- you can get your phone record kept by the NSA for free :-)

So what's the incentive?
- Even before SkypeOUt became free, typical long distance rates were similiar.
- why does the average person need a 3rd phone system for daily use?

Posted by: Jean Mercier at June 5, 2006 12:28 AM

Hello Mike B,
Are you an American ;-) ?

I had a discussion with Bill while he was writing his post, and i agree with your arguments (Bill also i guess). The only thing we forgot was the NSA recording advantage! You should explain here how you can retrieve the records ... oh yes, i remember, in front of a Federal Court (grin).

I think Skype should change its strategy and make more fuss about the other advantages:
- video
- file transfer
- online presence detection (i use it a lot to see if my son in Brazil is in front of the computer)
- encryption, therefore secrecy (NSA can still try to record the encrypted conversation packages)
- hardware making Skype calls possible through a telephone or telephone-like device
- conference calls with simultaneous chattting

and there are other advantages ...
But this would mean setting up marketing campaigns, therefore spending money, and their "viral growth" theory would be somehow "infected". Although ... the campaigne in the USA is also costing some money!

Posted by: Beth at June 5, 2006 6:02 AM

Until my son decided to do a semester abroad in the fall I hadn't even heard of Skype...and I am typically on top of things. For starters, they need to do a much better job of getting their name out there.

Posted by: sklosky at June 5, 2006 7:46 AM

Bill,

I think Jan's right on target with his comments.

Here are some additional thoughts.

I have been marketing Skype to several of my company's clients in the US Federal Government space. The feedback I'm getting is "P2P software is against our policy" or "IM software is against our policy" or "Skype is a security risk".

This feedback just rubs me the wrong way, because I don't agree with these policies or security assessments.

But, to address your question, my data shows that these are the cultural barriers that are in place today. I think there are several strategies to overcome these barriers. These strategies include -- finding early adopters in the business space, establishing success stories in business, establishing compelling value propositions and debunking myths.

On a comical, and, sadly, related note, my POC at Logitech (a manufacturer and vendor of Skype certified gear) does not have access to Skype due to corporate security restrictions.

Regards,

Steve

Posted by: aaytch at June 5, 2006 8:15 AM

If you watch the figure for "current users online" closely, you may notice that the peak intraday number is now holding for much longer than in the past. I'm quite sure that Jean Mercier will confirm this although it may be difficult to compile real statistics. The best explanation is that American Skype users are growing relative to the whole Skype population. Therefore, your observation about the low take-up rate in the USA is becoming more outdated every day. The American take-up rate will continue to improve with recent actions such as the Dell/Skype partnership, the North American free SkypeOUT program, the eBay/Yahoo partnership, the demise of Vonage, and Netgear-type phones..... and this is only the beginning.... I expect several more "developments" in the coming months. Besides, can you name another VOIP carrier getting more traction in the USA VOIP market? I can't.

Posted by: Jean Mercier at June 5, 2006 8:35 AM

Hey Steve,

me too:

On a comical, and, sadly, related note, my POC (Point of Contact) at Alcatel (the developer and i think N° 1 on the market of ADSL technology) does not have access to Skype due to corporate restrictions.

And a lot of people swith to DSL technology because of Skype!

Posted by: Rick at June 5, 2006 12:33 PM

Skype needs a Customer Service plan for paying customers that have Skype-In. They also need a Corporate Service department for any business plans.

I also think Skype needs to improve their network and quit relying solely on the cheapest public internet.

Other providers such as Gizmo and Yahoo have much better quality and customer service.

Posted by: Hayem [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 5, 2006 1:05 PM

I think SKYPE will do good if they start building Phone-Phone service which can be activated from a web site similar to webcalldirect or jajah.In this way people who are not geeks can use the web option to make calls.

Posted by: kukai at June 5, 2006 2:28 PM


Because it is not interoperable and keep people closed in a community. Look at the competition... in the Open Source Market... look at openwengo/wengo growth and remember Firefox vs. Internet Explorer.

Posted by: miriamsong at June 5, 2006 3:53 PM

I think Mike B. is right: US has low phone rates and low international calling volume.

How to fix it? Make a Skype-flavored Jabber so everyone can IM inside the Skype client to every other IM network, plus voice and video. And make some cool Skype hardware for teens. How about a wearable Skype that holds your student ID, turns off when school starts and turns on again as soon as the bell rings?

Posted by: Jean Mercier at June 6, 2006 12:51 AM

Answer to "aaytch"

No, i cann't confirm that "the peak intraday number is now holding for much longer than in the past".

See my post and graph of concurrent users online also posted on June 4 in this journal (click on "continue reading"), where i compare two dates, one in March and one some days ago!

But yes, the shape of the curve has changed slightly, and is probably due to the Americans catching somehow up.

I will continue to watch closely ;-)

Posted by: Jean Mercier at June 6, 2006 1:12 AM

Answer to "aaytch"

No, i cann't confirm that "the peak intraday number is now holding for much longer than in the past".

See my post and graph of concurrent users online also posted on June 4 in this journal (click on "continue reading"), where i compare two dates, one in March and one some days ago!

But yes, the shape of the curve has changed slightly, and is probably due to the Americans catching somehow up.

I will continue to watch closely ;-)

Posted by: Gasper at June 6, 2006 2:38 AM

Well, I bet now that Skype offers free skype to landline and mobile phone calls to USA and Canada, more people will download skype and use it.

Posted by: Rocketman at June 17, 2006 6:48 AM

In the UK - with sky high office rents and more and more homeworkers, the key to Skype's success will be a "Switchboard" whereby incoming calls (either multiple skypein numbers or skype to skype calls) can be redirected to other users (ip addresses) either on the local intranet or at home on a vpn link

The conference call doesn't cut it - the switchboard has to become free to receive other calls once the current call has been redirected.

Somebody tell skype - the key to getting more people using it at home is to have it adopted by small to medium business

(I'm a big skype fan)

Post a comment




Remember Me?

(you may use HTML tags for style)





Other Recent Posts

Skype 3.0 Folder Pollution in Life | Products | Skype杂志 | complaints | design | ebay | skype | skypejournal | voip | wishlist on 11/22/06

Skype 3.0 Beta for Windows; bugfix build 137 in General Notices | News | Products | Skype News | Skype杂志 | ebay | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/22/06

Skype PR Wake Up Call III: The Commentary in Business | Every Post | Ideas & Views | Marketing | Skype News | Skype杂志 | Strategy | ebay | observations | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/22/06

Wednesday morning scan in Business | Life | Marketing | News | Products | Skype Partner Watch | Skype杂志 | Strategy | Technology | Tips & Tricks | Yahoo | counterpoints | design | ebay | freedom | observations | regulation | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/22/06

Yes, TalkPlus reverse engineered Skype. in Developers | North America | Skype Partner Watch | Skype杂志 | Strategy | Technology | ebay | skype | skypejournal | voip on 11/21/06

Email to a friend