Just over two years ago I began infecting all my friends with Skype. The world has changed a little since then. Skype has grown up and sold out. There is little doubt the “edge” and the “gloss” is now off Skype from both a developer and consumer point of view.. So I’ve spent a lot of time considering the opportunity space created by the Skype sale. Where is that space? What must one do to capture it? How does one build global free telephony and empower users at the same time? What must be right to insure that developers aren’t screwed etc.
Looking back when Skype launched, the buzz was about Vonage. Today Vonage is an anachronism in a market of failed VoIP offerings. Skype still reigns supreme but copycat wars are in play. For example Yahoo IM and Project Gizmo. However, these take the Skype approach and assume growth in VoIP will come off the desktop. Each are careful to state that they aren’t a phone replacement – a result of 911 rulings. Thus all remain boxed in.
From what I see, Skype strategy has already failed or is vulnerable on three fronts:
Open Source: Create a more open environment for communications and conversation. By this I mean they are continuing to expand a closed network. You can interconnect with Skype via the PSTN, you can’t interconnect with Skype using another IM client. While Skype uses SIP for it’s interconnect like many SIP systems it remains closed. If the quality matches up then users will take open source solutions every time.
Simplicity: Actually make it simpler. With each iteration Skype becomes more bogged down in features that often don’t work. For example the new contacts grouping in 2.0 has no follow you feature. Open up a new machine and log in for the first time you will get your contacts but not your contact groupings. Concurrently, they appear to have run out of ideas for really new features. Video is new on Skype but not new in this format. New releases aren’t breaking the mold.
Devices – Hardware: Skype should be credited with understanding the importance of handheld devices for making the transition to telephony. However, they have not enabled me to obtain and use my current phone numbers on Skype. Thus while Skype has moved much closer to being a telephony solution it continues to require you to keep your PC on to really benefit or incur charges via call forwarding to pick up Skype calls from your PC. It’s totally failed to provide a method to talk to other Skype users when you are offline; unless they have a SkypeIn number or you utilize something like SMS to Skype.
Where Skype is the real winner is in bringing “presence” to telephony. While it was prevalent with IM, a whole new network of Skypers has tied new behavior to making voice calls. Example, most Skypers start their call with a chat. What we are also learning is the transformation of communications may take a little longer. Embedded Skype --- anyone know when that is coming? By contrast SIP Wi-Fi phones are here and ready now.
PhoneGnome Strategy?:
So I’ve been asking myself is there another way to help and enable the transition. What products and services are available that will:
1)Speed VoIP adoption
2)Retain the security and tradition of 911 while we develop and transition to future VoIP solutions.
3)Continue to offer the benefits of local dialing?
4)Enable new VoIP services on your Home Phone (traditional landline)
5)Don’t require a number transfer
6)Provide a better migration path for telephony.
I’ve come to the conclusion that there is only one device currently that does this. It does it by adopting your home phone and making it part of your VoIP network. The device is PhoneGnome and its strategy is very different to Skype.
1.Link the PSTN / Home Phone service to VoIP.
2.Drive down traditional phone costs
3.Make the Home phone available anywhere
4.Use SIP and open standards to enable and encourage interconnect.
5.Provide a feature set currently not available on the home phone; voice mail, telemarketing spam, forwarding etc.
6.Migrate users to PC based experiences using a soft client. Begin with a phone only. Then add the presence and texting features.
7.An opportunity to integrate with mobile suppliers will turn up as well.
8.Move users into an application environment. Enable users to combine surfing with making calls for free on their home phone.
9.Develop presence and add text and location capabilities.
There remain a whole lot of features I’d like added to PhoneGnome. However as a device priced at $119 it appears to be a bargain. It will pay out in well under six months. Grow the network and sell your friends on PhoneGnome and it will take even less time.
Will this device last forever? That’s unclear. The traditional telephone has been here one hundred years. What’s more important is the open network that is being created here. In the end many services will be complementary to your PhoneGnome. I think it makes sense for one of the Major IM companies to interconnect with PhoneGnome. It’s the fastest way to capture the traditional phone numbers.
Posted by: Jean Mercier at December 13, 2005 4:40 PM
I agree with most of your points concerning the evolution of Skype ... there is one thing you should however mention: version 2.0 is still beta.
To be honest, i doubt that the final release of 2.0 will have solved some of the problems you mention, unless they wait 6 months to release it.
I begin to loose my faith in the long term future of Skype too!
In my humble opinion, Skype should now somehow slow down the development of new features, but concentrate on eliminating the bugs, making it again easy to use, and making the current 2.0 version available on all platforms (Mac, Linux, and handheld computers!).
Posted by: Jim Courtney at December 13, 2005 8:39 PM
So when will we be seeing PhoneGnomeJournal;-)?
Posted by: MuppetMaster at December 14, 2005 7:07 AM
Keep on eye on the uCasterisk Project, brining you the power to embed Skype in an ATA...
Posted by: Phil Wolff at December 14, 2005 6:12 PM
Jim Courtney: So when will we be seeing PhoneGnomeJournal;-)?
Right after we do eBay Journal?
Posted by: Roger Fontana at December 18, 2005 4:49 AM
There are many problems Skype should solve as soon as possible: No transfer of SkypeOut credits, no transfer of SkypeIn numbers, very limited Skype group administration (e.g. groups cannot be deleted).
Posted by: OpenAdrien at December 26, 2005 7:17 AM
OpenWengo has the features you are talking about... The client is Open Source (GPL licence), it's compatible with various ATA devices, and it's philosophy is all about being open (free software, standard protocols) and simple. Check it out!
OpenWengo has the features you are talking about... The client is Open Source (GPL licence), it's compatible with various ATA devices, and it's philosophy is all about being open (free software, standard protocols) and simple. Check it out!
There are many problems Skype should solve as soon as possible: No transfer of SkypeOut credits, no transfer of SkypeIn numbers, very limited Skype group administration (e.g. groups cannot be deleted).
I agree with most of your points concerning the evolution of Skype ... there is one thing you should however mention: version 2.0 is still beta.
To be honest, i doubt that the final release of 2.0 will have solved some of the problems you mention, unless they wait 6 months to release it.
I begin to loose my faith in the long term future of Skype too!
In my humble opinion, Skype should now somehow slow down the development of new features, but concentrate on eliminating the bugs, making it again easy to use, and making the current 2.0 version available on all platforms (Mac, Linux, and handheld computers!).