Stuart Henshall

Skype - Chapter 2

September 12, 2005 02:58 PM

Topics:

niklaseBay.pngI spent last week in Tallinn at Skype as part of a small developers conference. I returned to the US excited about the prospects for making some changes and creating the next generation Skype API. That visioning process is easy to take a step further today. eBay presents a challenge for building business in a way that Skype was lacking. It will force them to be both more innovative, confident and decisive about their direction. Part of this deal is still a theoretical stake in the ground. That makes it at once both exciting, scary and for the competitors, some who I think may be stupidly laughing. It is now even more important that they have a " Skype strategy". I also think some VON presentations are getting a rethink today.

I've personally held a vision that Skype repesents the eBay (eBayization) of communications. I've used this vision to inform my own comments on Skype, its community, relationships, and what it is good for: "facilitating conversations." My posts here, here and here reference eBay-related directions starting two years ago, from September 2003. I'm sure there are more if I looked. So, when I saw the announcement this morning it wasn't a complete surprise. It was clear a deal was going down last week. Still the magnitude of the deal still makes one gasp.

So beyond the obvious "Power of Three" in the beautifully presented eBay powerpoint what can we see?

    Consumer and Small Business Focus is enhanced. Skype is not going after enterprise telephony. Thus it should be easy now for developers to march in with Skype enabled interconnect solutions to happen. I expect the developers interested in call centers and IVR solutions will get their opportunity real soon. With 500,000 customers (eBay sellers) this will get a massive jump start. Expect a few changes in the API to make it possible. Thus without either eBay or Skype worrying about the resellers backend, the developers will make this happen and show them how to Skype-enable every auction. Look to learn new lessons in online retail in the next six months. If successful, other online retailers will be forced to follow. This will make eBay more global overnight.

    Skype will extend the eBay model to consumer created content. More importantly, this will provide a superb digital content channel distribution system. In the next few years we will see this integrate with mobility. Concurrently, the real time nature of eBay's business will be enhanced. There are many opportunities that will be enabled via Skype. From shopping networks to video detailing of items for sale etc. Similarly, MyFavorite Auctions can take on new perspectives when delivered over Skype to IM clients etc.

    Possibly invert the eBay model: Skype down the road will enable eBay to aggregate consumer demand and auction it in the same way they currently auction consumer goods. What's nice about this is eBay doesn't have any interest in owning individual information. They understand it is the power of all of us. Facilitating marketplaces is what they do. A marketplace is nothing without conversations. Not all of those conversations require voice. Expect a large "agents" market to emerge as bots, skype and eBay integrate. That will increase the efficiency of finding buyers and matching them with sellers. Similarly for make to order solutions.

    Skype and eBay profiles: A huge winner in this area is possible. eBay will provide just one form of reputation data. Caller ID solutions are not far behind.

    Skype as a platform: With eBay behind Skype, a platforming strategy makes more sense. We can expect Skype to open up even more over time. Baby steps to begin with, sure, however the discussion has already included headless Skype clients in SkypeNet and thus potential opportunities to change and customize the UI. Rather than Skype being contained, I believe the experimentation is just about to begin. For Skype to keep up its consumer appeal, it will have to give developers more access to its client.


Many know I have been talking about Skype for a couple of years. Early this year I decided to focus my business development and my interests around Skype. Skype Journal continues to evolve as a result.

So, I'm excited today. Chapter 2 may provide more opportunities. I'm not sure what they all are yet or what I even want for myself. However, I know one thing: it creates a huge opportunity for Skype Journal to start talking with the eBay community. Concurrently, I'm now pushing harder for some API enhancements.

That's why I gave up my time to go to Tallinn. I left slightly uncertain that developers would get a chance, my perspective shaped on Thursday by the Tellme Voxio deal. Big players in a "monetary" interconnect area that would almost certainly require other (read small developers) to get certification to play. I was afraid the innovative opportunities for small developers would be lost. The eBay deal brings Skype back to the individual. It's again an "edge" business. I always liked that about both eBay and Skype. I'm happy to celebrate with Skype today.

To sum up:

  1. Skype started as disruptive telephony.
  2. It joined with a P2P marketplace and a simplified payment system.
  3. All of them cost the callers, buyers and senders nothing!
  4. The market become more efficient when it becomes more responsive.
  5. Skype reduces market friction and increases the flow.
  6. I expect more to join up.




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Posts linking to Skype - Chapter 2:

» A note to reporters doing the odd Skype story from Skype Journal
There will be a thousand stories today about eBay buying Skype - One Year Later. From a year ago: The original announcement. Man on the Skype Interviews: What does the eBay-Skype deal mean to you? Skype - Chapter 2. eBay and Skype: Back to basics. Sold... [Read More]

Tracked on September 11, 2006 11:02 PM

Comments

Posted by: Paul Jardine at September 13, 2005 2:48 AM

Great Analysis Stuart, and I especially agree on Skype enhancing the realtime nature of Ebay's business.
Imagine a variation on the 'BuyItNow' theme on Ebay, where the seller can go to 'LiveAuction' with a few invited individuals on Skype Conference. That would increase the prices paid and prevent people timing bids to the last possible minute.
I can see huge potential for Ebay, but I can't help feeling they overpaid and should have built (or bought cheaper). What they get here is about 20-30 million potential customers and they're immediately in the market.
If Ebay becomes an accepted 1-stop-shop for e-commmerce, that's worth something substantially north of $4 billion!

Posted by: Marc Dangeard at September 13, 2005 10:23 AM

I agree that this is another great step forward. Another great explanation of why this is such a big thing is in this webcast:
The future of work

>>
Just as the printing press enabled large numbers of people to participate in the politics of their times, so will the Internet and evolving communications technologies enable workers to perform their jobs as more active decision-makers, across greater distances.


Exciting stuff indeed :-)

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