Skype 4 Million Active Users Online

The Skype client shares how many are online. Currently I see just over 2.5m. Before the summer arose, we saw this number peak around the 3.25m point. The numbers have been at best flat or declining since then. So if Skype numbers are soft and college kids return to school in September, then we would expect a jump. Conclusion: if Skype is at less than 4 million users online by end of September then somewhere we have all miscued on growth. In that case, Skype may rush video to market to bolster numbers.

Is Skype Netscape?

Microsoft ignored Netscape for a good year, then turned everything around to kill it. Microsoft's IM client sucks. Skype is not Netscape, and there are several voice/IM clients in the play today. Yet, some believe that Microsoft can still turn the corner on Skype. Here's their challenge. Skype, unlike other IM replacements, has created a new "collective" cross-platform buddylist, including phone numbers and people that had never used IM before. The shaping of these new buddylists are now well underway. The more numbers, more names and more buddies people have on Skype the more difficult it will be to jump back to an old client. I have to move the majority for it to be successful. Otherwise I am again using dual clients. Unless there are new features that materially affect the way I work or socialize, the desire to shift won't be there. Just look how long people stuck with the old telephone.

More than Buddies

In my case I have over 250 buddies/numbers on Skype. I never collected the same number (or even came close) on any other messenger system. I'm sure it is an extreme (although my SmartPhone mobile has even more contacts in it) Migrating back to an old IM system even an improved one will not be easy. Add to this hardware (like RTX dual-phones) say $150 in misc hardware that one buys over the next year. Will that work with the new IM system? Will I have to write it off or will I be able to download a software upgrade that will allow it to now work with another IM system. How long will it take the manufacturer to catch up? Hardware represents a potential psychological lock-in.

Free Calls

Voipbusters is providing a free calls almost anywhere service that I reported on last week. Skype isn't working hard enough to reduce call costs. On the one hand, one voice in me says that isn't necessary and why antagonize Telecom's further. The other voice shouts "Free" is a fundamental part of the business model. So how does Skype make all my calls free? How does Skype reduce my broadband cost to zero? Is this an advertising mechanism? Does Skype empower me to sell some data? How can Skype create a better conduit for information exchanges between buyers and sellers? Can Skype more economically deliver the mail.... so to speak? Skype's economic opportunity is to reduce the cost of connecting to the net to free. They are getting there on interconnecting (PC to PC). If Skype doesn't do it the next new entrant will. Does it make sense? Should one use subsidies from one industry to fuel the growth of another? Why not?

Voice Differentiator

So far the only real differentiator Skype has had is voice. It's that part that really made the difference. While firewall busting and installs are important it is the stickiness of voice that created Skype and keeps it growing. However, we've seen no real advancements in voice since Skype launched and GIPS provides the majority of the audio solution. It's now been duplicated and adopted by others. So where is Skype's innovation? Where is the next generation features that will be harder to duplicate and more compelling? I'd look to presence and location information. Concurrently, identity - profile provide an interesting possiblity for leverage. The challenge will be how to enable and gain consumer trust.

Developer Program

Cynicism around the developers program remains. This may stem from Skype's willingness to do deals with "big names" e.g. Motorola, Logitech, Plantronics, (even when some of them have yet to launch a product) and yet completely ignore the small companies and individuals. This leaves one to wonder where it leaves a company like VoipVoice who make the CyberphoneK and provides one of the best software API integrations for usb hardware. It would appear inevitable that Skype just absorbs their plug-in and builds it into the product. Thus any Skype certified hardware device will be supported.

Skype Video?

It may be a question of when. It may also be a question of for what? Will Skype Video be limited to Windows only? Have they choosen a codec that will enable video to follow into OSX, Linux and Symbian? A video solution that stops at Windows won't have the same impact.