Stuart Henshall

Google Talk Skype Killer?

August 24, 2005 12:28 AM

Topics: Competitors | Products | Skype API | Skype News | Strategy | Technology | analysis | skype | skypejournal | voip

Is it all over for Skype? As Google Talk launched tonight with an Orkuttian viral shove provided by Gmail. At first glance it could be Skype's worst nightmare or the kick start necessary to refocus Skype. If you missed the buzz, Google Talk is the long awaited and predicted IM / Voice client. It won't be over for a while and the battle will take to the trenches with Yahoo, MSN and AOL battling to the end. This is a first salvo. Don't expect Google's feature set additions to follow Skype's path immediately to Telecom as Google has other opportunities sitting there within its empire. These are my first impressions.

googletalk.png

  • Extreme Simplicity. If you have a Gmail account you can just log in. The client is very simple.
  • Find buddies quickly. If they are in Gmail then you can make hundreds of invites very quickly. Authorization is simple.
  • Presence. Simplified and more intelligent than ever with customized field options that add new fun to presence. It's about time!
  • Chat. Very basic, no emoticons etc. Still it's clean and archived and I bet searchable (if not now soon) by google desktop. Chat uses XMPP and thus iChat and Jabber clients can connect directly to Google Talk. You can also add it immediately to Trillian. (Trillian could be quite a winner). Guess that will put Google Talk presence on mobiles too!
  • Talk. Talk is chat centric. Ie click to chat rather than Skype's click to call. Clicking opens a chat dialogue box. You then initiate a call from the chat window. Talk quality matches Skype and is better than Yahoo.
  • Chat Window Organization. Windows self organize in an interesting fashion until closed.
  • No profiles and no friendly pictures at this time.

How it really worked.

I had 8 conversations all around the world. Some of the voice connections didn't connect immediately and felt like they failed. There was just no sound. Sometimes the sound started after the call was connected for 30 seconds or more. This is likely just a short term bug. I enjoyed the inbound ring tone. Distinctively different from Skype. The invite process was very simple, building my list very elegant.

What's Missing?

From a Skype user's point of view: Almost everything. There are no profiles, no photos / pictures, no voice mail, no multi-conference or multi-chat. Plus there is no SkypeIn or SkypeOut capabilities. This is not a phone replacement. The multi-chat and conference calling should be easy to duplicate. The telephone system more difficut. However, each name is a SIP name and that is designed to connect with Vling and Gizmo project in a very short time. Plus with rumors around Google raising money, a TMobile USA purchase can't be that far away. That would provide a user base, the WiFi hotspots and most importantly the chance to integrate mobile numbers with VoIP.

Where's the Strength?

Talk is already integrated with Gmail and thus links nicely with IG, Google's personal content portal. So when will GoogleTalk have access to Orkut (profiles / social networking - pictures and profiles) Blogger (another place to share presence), Desktop (archive searching), Maps (location information) and instantly the whole Jabber/XMPP community. How quickly can Google bring these all together. Then they already have a photosharing program etc. Google has all the elements to bulk up to a Yahoo like client very quickly. Add in Ad Sense etc. Very neat models are likely to emerge. I heard from one punter tonight they had told their mother to buy more Google shares.

Developer Talk

Google has a great page outlining their preliminary plans and open strategy for the future of "talk."
Google's mission is to make the world's information universally accessible and useful. Google Talk, which enables users to instantly communicate with friends, family, and colleagues via voice calls and instant messaging, reflects our belief that communications should be accessible and useful as well. We're committed to open communications standards, and want to offer Google Talk users and users of other service providers alike the flexibility to choose which clients, service providers, and platforms they use for their communication needs.
Google

How does Skype stack up? Yahoo?

  • Google may win on philosopjy alone (see above mission) or the resources in dolars and manpower. However today, while Google may get it's Orkuttian swell of new users isn't actually an acceptable replacement client for either Skype or Yahoo. Both do more better for their current audiences.
  • On features, Skype is still ahead and if they would speed up their development and releases of call forwarding, VM improvements, Video, and their Presence Server they still have a chance althougth the market has shifted dramatically. Yahoo is bulking up however still does nothing really well. That may change.

Where should Skype's strategy start?

Open Up! By contrast with Google, Skype is on a philosophical back foot, well balanced. Being closed is no longer an asset, so Skype can compete only on its design, features and capabilities. To open up, the Skype chat client must adopt the Jabber/XMPP protocol, accelerating its interconnect and encouraging developers to "stick" / "start" developing products around the API. So far Google hasn't announced an API (count the hours). They will need one even if just for hardware. Skype will be forced to open up many aspects of its interface now.




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Comments

Posted by: Geoff at August 24, 2005 4:31 AM

Good article but surely T mobile have just been purchased by Deutsche Telekom? See http://www.t-online.net/c/05/69/62/569622.html

Posted by: Julian Bond at August 24, 2005 4:43 AM

When I saw Google.talk used Jabber I naturally assumed I could send jabber messages to a google.talk attached client from other jabber servers. Hmm. Not yet as far as I can tell. So while jabber clients can connect to google.talk, they're not running a full peer jabber server. probably.

Posted by: Paul Jardine at August 24, 2005 5:09 AM

Excellent article Stuart, I was just agreeing with Om Malik that Google doesn't need Skype, when they released GoogleTalk!
It would be interesting to ask the people at Skype, 'What's your Google strategy?', but I feel that, unless there is a whole lot more than video in the latter stages of development at Skype, Google has the experience, the leverage (in terms of desktop search, maps etc and sheer financial power) and the desire to win this race.
It seems mad to buy Google shares at the current level, but I think I just might...

Posted by: Rick at August 24, 2005 7:32 AM

Isn't new stuff great. I hope G Talk works out good, but before we throw away Skype let's do a reality check.

First, you mentioned some of your calls failed. This is totally unacceptable. I've rarely had such an experience with Skype, even from day one. Skype reliablility and quality is in the telephone standards ballpark. Can Google really deliver? Can they place 99.9 percent of my calls through firewalls? Let's wait and see before giving Skype a cold nudge. Skype is the TELEPHONY leader in this market and will remain so until real performance dictates, not just talk, i.e. G Talk.

My concern comes from an incident this weekend in which I decided to finally go for the wonderful well-regarded Gizmo Project. After downloading Gizmo, I was not able to log-in and unable to use the product. Hasn't it been out for months now. I got my brother to call me from his Gizmo to my cell phone. The quaility was terrible. He called me on Skype to cell phone and the quality was excellent.

Skype is a TELEPHONY product, first-most. This is Skype's greatest value to businesses and many callers around the world. I guess you could just say "It Works." And today, that says a lot.

Posted by: Stuart Henshall at August 24, 2005 8:44 AM

Geoff,
I should have been more specific. I meant T-Mobile USA for which I've seen pieces written that it doesn't have a 3G strategy and needs a major investment for a network upgrade. At the moment it is the weak player in the US mobile market. If memory serves me right I saw numbers around 5 billion quoted. Now that may be for the network upgrade.
Thanks for picking me up on it.

Posted by: Stuart Henshall at August 24, 2005 8:58 AM

Rick,
I'm not throwing out Skype yet. Today's Talk product doesn't compare. Still Google provides a "cache" that will be attractive. Skype is the "Telephony" leader, however Google's strategy is not telephony, it's talk and conversations. What I had hoped to hightlight is Google's path forward is significantly different to Skype's already. Their path is likely to provide different forms of innovation, that may actually be more disruptive in the end.

On the connections. I had no problem logging in to Google although I think the whole VoIP world tried at the same time or at least in minutes last night. I didn't feel like they had a problem however I wasn't alone in feeling the voice connection delay. The voice quality was superb.

On Gizmo, it's still not as effective at going through firewalls. You are right overall our expectations are increasing. Soon we won't even accept dropped calls.

It certainly makes for interesting times.

Posted by: Rick at August 24, 2005 9:24 AM

My comments weren't directed. They were probably more for myself than anyone. My main point is that I have not actually seen a product in Voip work like Skype, much less work period.

Posted by: Cesareo at August 27, 2005 1:46 AM

Hi!

Very good opinion and comments. Also I'd like to know about an important actor here: standards. I think that the use of XMMP and, in future SIP is important. Some people were worried about closed protocol of Skype, and sure, It is a good movemente the new API, but we (users) need protocols.

If XMMP come up and everybody uses it, perhaps Google (in talk and communications) will have a feet forward. I don't know. As I user, I'm happy to, at least, have a standard. After that I'll choose my platform.

Posted by: Marat at August 27, 2005 11:27 PM

I'm sorry, guys, but I just wonder what the Gtalk is like in terms of networking architecture, i.e. peer-to-peer skype-like or centralized approach? So is it going to use my processing and bandwith capacities?

Posted by: 8th street latinas at November 5, 2005 10:36 AM

XMMP come up and everybody uses it, perhaps Google (in talk and communications) will have a feet forward. I don't know. As I user, I'm happy to, at least, have a standard. After that I'll choose my platform

Posted by: young boy at December 27, 2005 5:34 AM

My comments weren't directed. They were probably more for myself than anyone. My main point is that I have not actually seen a product in Voip work like Skype, much less work period.

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