Hmmmm.... Five million new registered users in the last three months? No big deal. In fact if I was running Skype I'd be concerned if I didn't know already that the registered user number is grossly overstated. In gross terms this is the way the IM industry appears to count. Even then I'm not sure the players count apples and apples. For example in Yahoo you can have more than one alias on one account. How many registered users is that? In Skype each name is counted as a different user. In real terms like the downloads it's just another fiction. Here's why.

When we look at the last three months we see approximately five million new registered users. Cool, they just broke 50 million. Growth has apparently slowed. Skype added only 10% in the last three months. So what is this five million number comprised of. What does it mean?

1. Legitimate New Users. These people are new to Skype have never registered before and are just getting started. A percent will download and forget it after the first few experiments. I have no figures on abandonment. What would it be? How many percent over the first six months? 10% or 50%? Perhaps 10% even before they make a calI and 15% before the second call. (Part of the no buddies connundrum and no free minutes). So the conversion loss could be quite high. Users install to satisfy a friend or family member. Others add it and then don't get enough of their social network across. It's a hard life for a new user. Skype knows this and has added all sorts of features to help. Import contacts, toolbars etc. The more contacts / buddies a person has the more power the application provides.

2. Aliasing: Many users want more than one name. Each registration counts as a new one. The fact is for the most part users aren't running these as multiple lines on multiple computers. They log in and off. They may use one for SkypeMe and another for more legitimate business. I've lost count of how many names I've registered. I'm not alone. Most of those names are idle. I'd think most new users will over time end up with at least two names.

3. Name churn. My daughter churns her AOL name quite often as do many of her friends. It's a way of cleansing their buddylist. The more youthful Skype's appeal, the greater the likelihood that "churn" has an impact. While I doubt 1 in 10 users churned their name in the last three months, given the base (45 million) churn could now have a significant impact on the growth of new registered names. Thus the larger the Skype user base, the more churn in new registrations we get.

Now there is another way to look at the 5 million new registrations. If we saw five million new users then at a minimum we would say we had added 10%. If all else remains equal then we would expect the number of active users online to have increased similarly. At the end of May the daily peak for active users concurrently online was consistently through the 3 million mark and I think reached approx 3.25 million. Since then, growth of active users online appears is static (at best). That means the number of new registration is significantly lower. Alternatively, many abandoned Skype in the period.

Separately, don't underestimate the impact of summer, college kids at home, perhaps less access to broadband. Skype surged last September and I'd expect it to surge again this September. Plus some Skypers share an account. So that's one registered account but two Skypers. A number Skype has been releasing that does matter is the number of SkypeOut users (round to 2 million). A good portion of those are using it daily. Separately Skype has quoted that 30% of Skypers use it for business. So they are online all the time too.

In the end it's all guesswork.

Conclusions:

1. Nowhere near 5 million new Skype users have been added in the last three months.
   
2. The registered user number does not represent with any degree of accuracy actual Skype user numbers. It is more materially wrong than right.
   
3. Many factors account for the difference, behavior, peer groups, legitimacy, size of buddylist, SkypeOut,early experiences, etc.
   
4. My number on unique Skype users last seven days would be 12.5 million tops. I'm happy for Skype or you to prove me wrong.

Finally the only numbers that matter is the number of users that have conversations and exchanges each day. Be nice to know how many actually held calls and how long those calls lasted for. The health of the community is in the numbers. The 50 million may make it seem like Skype is the gorilla. In fact Skype is still an ant and the definite underdog. People like underdogs. Perhaps Skype will come clean and report more representative numbers. Unless of course they are trying to sell.