Business | Financial Performance | Google | Skype Partner Watch | Skype杂志 | Strategy | analysis | ebay | skype | skypejournal | voip

Skype Journal: Google eBay Click-to-Call deal is about Skypenomics and FUDware

August 30, 2006 10:20 AM

Bill Campbell's post about Wall Street is baloney, of course. Kent says it well.

You state "Wall Street frowns on the eBay/Skype side of the partnership according to the New York Times." I read the article you linked ... it makes absolutely NO mention of the market's (i.e. Wall Street's) view of the Google/eBay/Skype collaboration.

The share prices are "factually" listed at the end of the article (without comment) ... as is customary. As for "doing the math," Google shares rose 2.0% and eBay shares rose 1.9%. The difference is statistically insignificant.

There may be a story here, but this article, and yesterday's share movement for Google and eBay, isn't it.

Investors didn't even notice the Skype side of the deal. Why would they? Any benefits won't affect eBay Inc. cash flow for years. Meanwhile, they had lots of other news to consider. For example, the advertising part of the deal, extending Google Inc.'s ad distribution onto eBay sites mirroring the previous Yahoo!-eBay arrangement, and the Google Office Suite that positions Google more clearly in opposition to Microsoft. Both bits of news would clearly have more immediate effect on valuation of the business.

As for the Click-to-Call service, there is both an opportunity and a risk. The opportunity is to create a form of paid advertising with greater merit than page views or even click throughs. Web advertisers find page views a less relevant metric than ever. But someone actually talking to a sales person, well, I have a pretty good chance of converting that lead into a customer. It's the difference between driving by a car dealership and walking in the door to speak to a hungry rep.

The risks are equally huge. Click-to-Call assumes:

  1. Potential eBay and Google customers have compatible smartphone software or hardware. eBay is now rolling out Skype to its buyers and sellers, starting back in June at the eBay Live conference. But uptake by the U.S. and Canadian public is very slow. Meanwhile Microsoft, Yahoo!, AOL, AT&T, Earthlink, Comcast and others are promoting their own VoIP enabled messaging clients, fragmenting the market.
  2. They are willing to use PCs to talk. This is a new behavior. You can't assume customers will change their behavior in ways you approve. What percent of Skype users try voice once and never use it again?
  3. Sellers are able to buy the right leads. Talk isn't cheap and margins are thin. eBay started by sheltering sellers from buyers; transactions just happened. Now sellers compete for buyers, augmenting eBay's natural traffic with their own off-eBay advertising and promotional strategies. For c2c, sellers must segment online prospects by interest in specific products. They must also decide which prospects are worth talking to. This is an auction-by-auction calculation and so far there is too little information to make an informed choice, especially for high volume sellers.
  4. Sellers are able to answer callers. Most sellers aren't ready to talk to dozens or hundreds of callers a week. Some will need to set up phone-oriented CRM software, hire people or a service, and develop new call center management skills. They will learn to be agreeable and available at their callers' convenience instead of their own. These are new competencies, not lightly adopted and prone to misstep.

These are not fast, sure, or cheap to fix. But they can be managed. eBay and Skype know the problems and have started to address them. Skype education programs for eBay buyers and sellers is a start.

eBay's click-to-call service is FUDware today, the variation of vaporware that spreads fear, uncertainty and doubt among potential rivals. Nothing new for those who follow eBay financial conference calls. To get a payoff on c2c, eBay and Google will need to execute on branding Skype in the US and making the unnatural act of using your PC as a phone an everyday affair.


TrackBack (0)

Comments (2)

oh baloney, mahoney, how I love a good debate. Do continue with this.

Posted by: Tropicaljantie | Jan Geirnaert at August 31, 2006 1:07 AM

Show can you introduce me how to do this (link or examaple). I have a lot of customer ... I'll appreciate much if I'm able integrating 'Click-to-Call deal' of Skype into my web/win application.
Best regard.

Posted by: A Skype 's fan at September 4, 2006 5:01 AM