analysis

Skype Journal: Ten Things You Won't Learn at VON

September 17, 2005 05:28 PM

What should VON goers really be concerned about? If you are headed there to secure the latest in VoIP equipment, then how safe is that investment strategy? In what context should you be thinking?

I sense there are at least 10 things we won’t learn much about at VON. They could be very important. Weak signals from other industries and simple usage and behavioral data that is standing straight in front of our faces, so close it is often hard to even see it. It's very easy to get wrapped up in industry details, mental maps and miss the broader changes. So when you are walking around VON this year look beyond the trade.

Things I don't think I will see or hear much about....

  1. Will there be any presentation from ethnographers or research companies talking about the impact of soft phones on communication behavior? What is the impact of presence on usage? What's happening with headsets, handsets, and new device design?

  2. Will mobile operators even be there? Will mobile handsets and dual WiFi mode handsets be talked about? Will I hear about the handsoff technologies and enterprise integration or will I obtain new home insights that will drive these devices forward.

  3. In fact, what is happening in the home? How’s this VoIP stuff driving or changing consumer perspectives? What’s the outlook for the ATA box, and embedded solutions? Will the embedded WiFi handset kill them all? When will these products be rolling out?

  4. Will mobility plays like Jambo, Plazes and Streethive be even talked about? Where do these social locating services fit in the future? Are they the next Gracenotes?

  5. Will file sharing systems from BitTorrent to eDonkey be discussed? Will Podcasts and iTunes be part of the changing world view? Will we look at how consumers are managing data, photos (flickr) and mobile dating (Friendsation).

  6. Will Orb Networks and TV - media content held by consumers - be introduced? How does this “edge” tivo work? Isn’t this just one video aspect? Will we really explore video, video messaging, video blasts and the future of the advertising industry?

  7. Where is the changing face of VoIP at retail. How does the retailer build their VoIP business. What are the hot buttons with consumers? Where are the margins to be made? Will there be any discussion of devices, handsets, headset, and how they are being merchandised? What surprises will Santa bring this year?

  8. What’s happening with emerging VoIP related software developers? What’s happened with Skype developers? Where are there opportunities? Where are the discussions on API’s? What API's do we need? Is there any progress on "wallet" solutions?

  9. What is the instrumentation for success? What are the real statistics? What happens when we combine IM and Telephony? What segments emerge? What is the global picture? How many minutes are people spending in different modes. How is VoIP impacting on this?

  10. Users.

    What bothers me most about VON is the industry has forgotten about the users. That is, the end users. In a world of increasing complexity I can’t begin to fathom the press releases and acronyms I see. I am not alone. Communication is about people. We have voices and a sense of presence. By nature we want to share and trade.

    This leads me to suggest that there is little on the agenda that will help me understand:

    • The socialization of communications media
    • The commercial implications of “edge” driven conversational markets.
    • The real impact of “presence” in a “real-time” always on world.
Wandering the halls of last year's VON I was stunned that so many didn’t see radical changes to pricing models coming, and how many more had never heard of Skype. At VON Spring in San Jose a few more had heard of Skype and some had even tried it. Still I know Skpye is banned in most of the companies attending. VoIP and VON is not a consumer definition under any circumstances. A radical would suggest today that telephony is really a tax on social exchanges. That no longer benefits anyone. The freedom to connect, converse and stay in touch is really for the common good.

Some think Skype was born of zealots wanting to change and disrupt the world. Others would simple say after 100+ years, enough is enough. I believe that the world is now a whole lot tougher for telecoms and VoIP providers. Concurrently, the portals have just got a sniff of what happens when their media distribution model is threatened. Don’t believe me. Just think about eBay and advertising via IM. Think about artistes selling their content. Consider selling access to you, whether for credits or access. Make no mistake, the new world, whether called a social media exchange or conversation markets, is set to favor you and me.

At VON this conclusion is all probably madness. What do you expect will be missing from VON?


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Comments (1)

Just found your comments on the web and am totally in agreement with your concerns. In fact, I just returned from a conference on enterprise business communications focused on messaging and pointed out that no one seems to be representing what end users really need.

Who should be responsible at the "C" level? Certainly not IT!

Posted by: Art Rosenberg at October 22, 2005 1:58 AM