Hudson Barton: Skype census growth slows

Skype‘s rate of growth is slowing, says Hudson Barton, who tracks Skype user long term activity. "At this point in ’09, Skype ‘Real Users’ was up 18% YTD.  This year it is up 13%." Barton adjusts the number of Skype accounts logged in at each moment for regions and common behavior,  like logging in during the day and logging off at night, to estimate the number of people who use Skype.

"It can now be said with some confidence that Skype is having a really bad year if the data is being accurately reported by Skype. With 7 months now gone, it is not possible to catch up to the pace of 2009 (36% growth in "real users"), and in fact the full year may be even slower than 2007 (27% growth) which was the worst since 2003."

"At this point in ’09, the seasonal (summertime) drop-off in Skype usage was 7% from its springtime peak.  This year the dip is 14%.  So one suspects that the situation is getting worse as we go through the year."

Theories abound.

• Theory: Competition. People are substituting Facebook and Twitter and other IM for Skype text chat. So more people aren’t logging into Skype unless asked while others take longer to sign up for Skype accounts.
  Confidence: 5/5.
  Counter: Millions more folks are holding conversations in context-rich places like a band’s fan page or where social objects trigger talk. Horizontal tools like Skype and email are becoming backup choices. 
• Theory: Dependency. Skype growth follows bandwidth and availability. Not much growth in that department this year thanks to the economy.  Upgrades are on hold in much of the world.
  Confidence: 4/5.
  Counter: None.
• Theory: Saturation. Skype is reaching some limits to natural growth. What is the universe of people that can have Skype accounts? 1.8 billion people are on the Internet and Skype issued more than 560 million accounts. The first 31% of low-hanging fruit may have already joined and the cost of customer acquisition may be going up.
  Confidence: 4/5
  Counter: The mobile Internet is growing quickly, and Skype along with it.
• Theory: Low Buzz. Skype’s gone quiet with its marketing. Very low level PR this year, so still relying on word of mouth, natural growth, which is slow. No big Oprah-US bump like in 2008.
  Confidence: 3/5.
  Counter: Skype is not news to early adopters. Mainstream media runs stories weekly featuring Skyped interviews, stories about celebs using Skype, and profiles of deployed soldiers keeping in touch with family.
• Theory: Businesses are slow to adopt. The economy still is still in pain so there is less growth in Skype’s business segment. People are logging in to Skype just for the occasional international voice or domestic video call. 
  Confidence: 1/5.
  Counter: Companies are using every tool to cut costs and improve effectiveness. Including Skype.
• Theory: Unemployment. When employment is down 5%, the people logging in to Skype at work will also go down 5% (assuming no other changes or growth)
  Confidence: 1/5
  Counter: The ratio of weekend to weekday activity is not changed (Barton).
• Theory: Mobile Skyping doesn’t show in stats. Skype chews up Android battery life and iPhone bandwidth. So users are logging in for outbound calls only (5 minutes per week?) instead of staying connected (10080 minutes per week).
  Confidence: 1/5.
  Counter: Skype’s mobile userbase remains a small portion of the whole.
• Theory: Greener behavior means turning off computers to conserve electricity, along with Skype.
  Confidence: 1/5
  Counter: No studies to support this claim.

Skype isn’t commenting on financial and operating measures.