iPhonic
The good:
- Visual voicemail will raise the bar. "Wireless data" will finally be about improving the core voice and messaging product. Everyone will have to match this, although the timescale will be 2-3 years, if not more.
- The touch UI will enable new experiments in navigating social networks and personal data.
- Easy conferencing for consumers will also become the norm (as it is with Skype).
The bad:
- Battery life will suck. 5 hours talk or 16 of music sounds good... until you really do your sums. You always need a healthy amount of power left at close of play every day in your phone, because you never know when your day will unravel and you unexpectedly need every ounce of charge. This device cannot replace the iPod due to "charge anxiety".
- Same mistake as Microsoft -- taking the PC to the handset, not growing a simple feature set upwards. Result: unaffordable to the mass market, because of the cost of finessing all the technology constraints with state-of-the-art components.
- Doesn't look robust enough for the hammering most mobiles take.
- Insufficiently "disposable" for what ultimately is a fashion statement, and too expensive for an impulse buy. Nokia's N800 at $399 could become $199 in 2 years, and that's a gift buy for the couch web surfer.
- Lack of keypad and haptic feedback will be a major turn-off to many users who aren't impressed by technology for the sole sake of preserving sleekness.
The ugly:
- The member has been inserted into an orifice, and it looks messy when you pull it out. (You go look it up.)
Overall:
Will sell well enough as a style statement, 1% market share will be tough. The thing to watch is how well the price holds up in retail. Also, basic execution issues of logistics, distribution and support will be harder than the iPod, and will test Apple severely. I don't think Nokia or Morotola will be losing too much sleep on this -- it'll do everyone good to have the customer expectations and demand raised.
Maybe we need to wait for "iPhone Nano" for something usable and affordable to the mass market?
The real product story is Apple TV, which does end-run the carrier IPTV offerings, and ultimately could be far more significant (but only if the in-building wireless really screams along, and the carriers don't reserve all the bandwidth for their proprietary TV).
Martin blogs even more at Telepocalypse.
